Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant turned in one of the most shocking campaigns in modern NFL history, as the rookie no one else wanted helped lead the San Francisco 49ers to the playoffs. But a torn UCL ended his, and one might argue the Niners’, season in the NFC title game.
So will Brock Purdy play in 2023? What is his injury outlook, and how will it impact his QB teammates and the 49ers’ championship hopes?
Latest Brock Purdy Injury Update
According to The Athletic’s David Lombardi, 49ers GM John Lynch expects Purdy to resume throwing 12 weeks post-elbow surgery, which would be in early June. When the QB starts throwing, the team will then have more clarity as to what the future holds.
All that being said, there seems to be a chance Purdy is back in Week 1, but the 49ers have been bracing for a potential absence that stretches to Week 4. That included signing free agents Sam Darnold as well as Brandon Allen.
This is critically important not only to Purdy’s standing with his team but also to his NFL future. Remember, he wasn’t expected to be an NFL starter. He plays in one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. And he’s also competing for the starting job with 2021’s No. 3 overall draft pick, Trey Lance.
Let’s not dive too deeply into “sunk costs.” But I don’t think the Niners care if Lance or Purdy is better. They only care if one of them looks like a QB who can help lift them to a title. Purdy proved he’s capable of coming close, and perhaps he can even develop into a strong NFL starter.
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Lance remains a huge question mark. If Purdy were to sit the entire 2023 campaign, Lance would have an opening to establish himself as a true franchise QB. A successful season for Lance likely would relegate Purdy to the No. 2 job, or in a better-case scenario (for playing time), the Niners could trade him to a QB-desperate team — one that might not have the caliber of offensive playmakers that San Francisco has.
What Is Purdy’s Injury?
Purdy tore the ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow of his throwing arm during the first quarter of this year’s NFC Championship Game against the Eagles. Often with these injuries, the UCL gradually tears over time, especially among individuals who engage in repeated overhand throwing motions. But sometimes, it can occur in an instant.
The initial prognosis for recovery was at least six months. Of course, there can be complications and setbacks.
In fact, a recent study shows a meaningfully increased probability of a torn UCL eventually culminating in another torn UCL. While Purdy absolutely could prosper in the NFL in spite of this early-career setback, he’s also a higher-than-normal re-injury risk.
What Are the 49ers’ Options if Purdy Doesn’t Play?
Back to where we started. This is where things get complicated and/or interesting, depending on your personal investment in Purdy, Lance, and the 49ers in general.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan already has stated that he “expects” Lance and the recently acquired Sam Darnold (also a former No. 3 overall pick) to share first-team reps during offseason workouts. When Purdy returns, who knows? But it’s interesting (and not entirely surprising) that Lance isn’t squarely ahead of Darnold on the depth chart.
Maybe Shanahan believes this will motivate Lance. Or maybe the longtime coach truly believes Darnold — who’s somehow still only 25 years old — might finally exhibit his potential in an offense featuring one of the league’s top backfield and one of the NFC’s top receiving corps.
The reality is the 49ers should be fine with or without Purdy, at least for now. We haven’t yet seen Lance at or near his best. While he was atrocious in Week 1 last season, awful field conditions played a modest-to-significant role. I don’t doubt that he would have performed significantly better if he hadn’t gotten hurt early in Week 2 against Seattle.
So while Jimmy Garoppolo is long gone, this team will have a few months to assess whether Lance is ready to help lead this offense or if Darnold brings more poise while operating in the best scheme he’s ever played in. And if the answer is “none of the above,” and if Purdy’s ready, then at least San Francisco knows what to expect from their most unlikely hero from the 2022 season.
