Thoughts On J.K. Dobbins, And Can We Trust Damien Harris And Rhamondre Stevenson?

If you’re playing a New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Patriots vs. Ravens DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Patriots DFS considerations

New England earned a much-needed road victory against the Steelers. But don’t let that fool you. Their passing game remains a work in progress, and their defense stopping Trubisky and an underperforming Najee Harris does not, by any means, guarantee the ability to slow down Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman.

While some bettors might flock to Week 2 heroes Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers, I’m urging caution on starting both. One should be sufficient. To be clear, this doesn’t mean Mac Jones can’t replicate this winning formula against other teams. It does mean that head coach Bill Belichick probably doesn’t want to turn this next matchup into an air battle.

Despite their relatively muted numbers, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are still offensive focal points, combining for 4.7 yards per carry and a little more than one-third of the team’s offensive yards. For context, the Rams’ two-man backfield has combined for only 29% of L.A.’s offensive yards. Miami’s Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert? 24%. Buffalo’s three-headed backfield? 23%.

If the Patriots’ path to victory lies with 6-8 minute drives led by their above-average co-starting running backs, then a well-executed plan should yield better DFS value for Harris and Stevenson than for any other Patriots player — that is if we can afford them.

Ravens DFS considerations

Lamar Jackson seemingly is a must-start DFS play, regardless of price. I honestly underestimated him this summer at his QB4 ADP, believing there were plenty of comparable QBs (like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert) who could be just as good or better. But so far, Jackson looks to be in mid-season form.

That leaves us with tough questions regarding the receiving corps. Can we afford Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman? How much can we trust the TD-dependent Devin Duvernay? Is Isaiah Likely cheap enough to take a flier on him? And could Justin Tucker or Baltimore’s D/ST be intriguing value plays?

As for the backfield, it’s J.K. Dobbins or bust. Remember the August hype surrounding “handcuff” Mike Davis? Yes, that really happened. For weeks. But neither he nor Kenyan Drake nor Justice Hill can adequately pressure defenses. Dobbins is the missing piece to this playoff-bound puzzle, and until he’s back to full strength, one of these RBs realistically needs to score to be even semi-useful in a DFS tournament.

Recommended DFS lineup

When a seemingly unstoppable offense goes on the road against a good-to-great defense, strange things can happen. This DFS lineup runs contrary to a popular narrative that Lamar Jackson will continue rolling. If you don’t agree, obviously trust your gut. But I’m bracing for a steady dose of Harris and Stevenson to keep the clock moving and limit Jackson’s possessions.

Averaging 5.0 yards per carry after facing Miami and Pittsburgh, Harris ($8,200 normally, $12,300 as Captain) is in our Captain slot. Choosing the more expensive Jackson or Andrews would limit our lineup options. Harris actually has 20-plus-point upside against a D that’s been deceptively subpar (4.8 yards per carry). Why “deceptively”? Because teams have run only 35 times against them — the NFL’s second-lowest mark. I expect the Patriots to try to exploit the Ravens’ line.

This means I’m also recommending the versatile and affordable Stevenson ($6,200), as well as Agholor ($6,600). For the Ravens, I’m going with Jackson ($13,000) and Andrews ($10,800). I expect Jackson to struggle more than expected, compelling him to target his favorite safety valve.

With our final $1,100, we’ll invest $800 on the TD-dependent Jonnu Smith. Not an ideal decision. But if the Patriots follow the game plan I’m anticipating, at least four of our top five players should hit the mark. Anything Smith does would be gravy.

Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to top