Can We Trust Dameon Pierce, David Montgomery, Or Khalil Herbert?

If you’re playing a Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Bears vs. Texans DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Bears DFS considerations

How good is Justin Fields? That will be a weekly question until we see at least a full season from Chicago’s current franchise QB. Now, why do we say current? Because entering this summer, some experts doubted Fields’ ability to elevate this team for the long term.

The Bears will need to decide soon whether to build around him or start over. And while this season likely won’t be enough alone to determine that, it will go a long way toward ultimately deciding if he is the guy.

With that in mind, the mixed reviews surrounding his first two games are telling. On the one hand, he has an impressive comeback win under his belt. On the other hand, he’s thrown for only 191 yards. Additionally, he’s averaging only 24 rushing yards per game, despite averaging 39 per game in 10 starts last season, as well as 48 per game in his final year at Ohio State.

Our DFS lineup must reflect whether we believe Fields can take a big step forward through the air against Houston. Otherwise, we probably can’t trust the likes of Darnell Mooney or Cole Kmet, regardless of their prices.

Texans DFS considerations

Now that Dameon Pierce seems to be entrenched as Houston’s lead back, the DFS possibilities have narrowed. Brandin Cooks might or might not be a better value play than the ascending Nico Collins. Beyond them, it’s anyone’s guess whether Davis Mills can be more than a bottom-five (statistically) starting QB.

The Cooks/Collins conundrum is fascinating. Last year, there was never a doubt that Cooks was the No. 1. But last weekend, we witnessed what might be the start of a shift. Or maybe it was a short-term blip. Mills targeted these two on half of his 38 pass attempts. So maybe he can feed more than one receiver this year.

Yet last year, Mills exceeded 38 attempts only twice, despite negative game scripts nearly every week. So if he drops to a more “normal” 33-34 pass attempts, Cooks or Collins could be unstartable when we factor in the relatively low probability that one of them will score.

Recommended DFS lineup

For starters, I was completely wrong about David Montgomery heading into last weekend, firmly believing that Khalil Herbert would pull even with Chicago’s starter “imminently.” Well, it’s not imminent yet, and of course if Montgomery keeps producing like he did in Green Bay, the job will remain his all season.

So I’m comfortable investing $12,000 on Montgomery, trusting that Chicago can come out on top, and that a favorable game script will work in his favor. I also like Fields ($10,200) and Kmet ($4,400). While Kmet might seem like an odd choice, he won’t finish the year with zero catches. In fact, playing in messy conditions in Week 1 and then in Green Bay in Week 2 are not useful barometers of future production. Kmet will be fine, because Chicago needs him.

For Houston, I’m not sold on expensive options like Brandin Cooks and Pierce. Instead, this lineup includes Collins ($5,800) and O.J. Howard ($4,800). Assuming Houston plays from behind for a majority of this game, I’m expecting Mills to be forced to throw in the second half, with Collins and Howard offering solid 8+ point odds.

And I haven’t forgotten about the Captain slot. That goes to none other than Mooney ($7,800 normally, $11,700 as Captain). Like Kmet, Mooney has been an early-season disaster: two catches for four yards. I shared with PFN Pass subscribers this summer why he was overvalued. But he’s not this overvalued. Expect 8+ looks for Fields’ No. 1 receiver. I’m eyeing at least a 6-91 receiving line.

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