We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Vikings vs. Lions DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Vikings DFS considerations
The Eagles mostly neutralized the Vikings’ passing game on Monday — and while we’re at it, the running game too. Minnesota compiled only 264 offensive yards one week after hanging 395 on the Green Bay Packers. Monday marked their lowest yardage output with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen active since Week 4 of last season.
So I’m viewing Monday night’s shutdown more as a speed bump than a wall. This franchise has the pieces to compete for the NFC North title, and Detroit’s beatable defense should open the door for the Vikings’ key playmakers to rebound.
One key question is whether we can trust Irv Smith Jr., who should be cheap enough in DFS to strongly consider as an add-on. The top-heavy Vikes don’t have many other inexpensive options.
I backfilled last Monday’s recommended DFS lineup with the ultra-cheap Johnny Mundt, whose two catches for 28 yards actually put this lineup in the money in tournaments. But we can’t count on that happening every week. There are five or six worthwhile players to invest in on this team, and most are quite pricey. We’ll need to be selective based on anticipated game flow.
Lions DFS considerations
Is Detroit for real? Yes. As PFN subscribers have known since July, Jared Goff was my biggest QB fantasy bargain, as his preseason QB27 ADP was, bluntly stated, ridiculous. A healthy Lions offense, combined with the addition of DJ Chark (and eventually Jameson Williams), bring out the best in the former No. 1 overall draft pick. Oh, and D’Andre Swift is elite when healthy, so that certainly helps, to put it mildly.
As with so many DFS lineups, we have big decisions to make. If we believe Detroit will remain competitive, then Swift gets a boost. If Minnesota can exploit the Lions’ questionable defense early and often, will Goff lean more heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chark, and T.J. Hockenson?
We could afford Swift and St. Brown if that turns out to be the smartest play. But at what cost? Minnesota has its share of elite producers, too.
Recommended DFS lineup
Let’s jump right into this. Irv Smith ($4,600 normally, $6,900 as Captain) is in our Captain slot. We’re rolling the dice on the highly touted tight end who missed all of last season and has been working his way back this year. This past Monday night, he showed the world (or at least those who were watching the game) that he can be a top-four offensive weapon for Minnesota.
By going cheap with our Captain, we have enough cap space to snag Dalvin Cook ($10,800) and Justin Jefferson ($11,800). As alluded to three paragraphs up, Detroit’s defense is a work-in-progress. I believe each of these playmakers has better than 50/50 odds of scoring Sunday, and of course, they have the kind of blow-up potential we want in DFS tournaments.
That leaves $9,000 for Cousins and $8,800 for Goff. Why am I not taking Amon-Ra St. Brown? Because he’s expensive, and I believe Detroit will need to spread the ball around against a defense that (so far) has held opposing No. 1 WRs in check. And why not Swift? Because he’s also expensive, and the risk of a mid-game re-injury remains concerning.
With our final $2,700, I’m recommending Josh Reynolds for $2,600. He and Goff have chemistry dating back to their time with the Rams. He looked good in Week 2 and should operate as the No. 5 offensive option in a likely high-scoring game.