Those who know me know that my main gimmick is hyperbole. Everything (within the gimmick) is all or nothing — 0% or 100%. A player is the best, or he’s the worst. Of course, this is all part of the gimmick. Middle grounds do exist. But the fun of it is making those scorching hot takes. So, let’s do it for real. Here are my scorching hot takes for the 2023 fantasy football season.
2023 Fantasy Football Scorching Hot Takes
Given that I’ve already described what you’re about to read as “scorching hot,” I probably don’t need to provide this disclaimer, but I will anyway. Nothing you’re about to read is likely to happen. The purpose here is to highlight extreme best or worst-case scenarios on some players as a means of illustrating how I may or may not feel about a player. Although these are intentionally outlandish, even my scorching hot takes are grounded in reality.
Bijan Robinson Finishes as the Overall RB1 and Is the Consensus 1.01 in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
Admittedly, this isn’t the most scorching. Bijan Robinson already has an RB3 ADP. Clearly, fantasy managers are expecting big things from the rookie.
There was only one other time I made a confident prediction about a young running back finishing as the overall RB1 and being the consensus 1.01 the following season. That was in 2016 about David Johnson. Johnson wound up finishing as the overall RB1 in total points (RB2 in points per game) and was the clear 1.01 in 2017 (never mind how that worked out).
No rookie running back has ever finished as the overall RB1 in points per game (Saquon Barkley did it via total points in 2018). But Robinson is a generational talent — the best RB to come into the league since Barkley. He finds himself in a run-first offense that plans to use him all over the field.
Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, while still elite, are getting older. Robinson is poised to be the top fantasy RB for the next half-decade, and I think it starts right away.
Justin Herbert Accounts for 50 Touchdowns and Finishes as the Overall QB1
How’s that for scorching? Of course, this isn’t likely. But is it possible? Absolutely.
With Tom Brady retired, Justin Herbert is the heavy favorite to lead the NFL in pass attempts this season. The Los Angeles Chargers were already a pass-heavy offense and now have the architect of the No. 1 scoring offense in 2019 and 2021, Kellen Moore, as offensive coordinator.
In 2021, Herbert threw 38 touchdowns and added three more on the ground. I’m only asking for nine more here. With the Chargers adding WR Quentin Johnston in the first round and not signing anyone to put behind Ekeler, this sure looks like a team committed to the pass. Herbert has the talent to put together a truly massive season.
Darren Waller Dominates Targets in New York and Finishes as the Overall TE2 Behind Travis Kelce
Last year, the NFL wrote Geno Smith off. He didn’t write back.
This year, the fantasy community appears to have written Darren Waller off. He’s 31 years old and spent the last two seasons missing more games than he played. He goes from the pass-happy Raiders to the run-heavy New York Giants.
Once a second/third-round pick, Waller’s ADP has fallen to the fifth or sixth round and is being drafted as the TE7.
The Giants have no clear WR1 or even WR2 to speak of. Their entire WR corps is made up mostly of slot receivers and undersized guys. Waller is poised to not only lead the Giants in targets but to dwarf every other pass catcher.
There’s a realistic scenario where Waller commands over 130 targets. He saw 145 in 2020, when he averaged 17.4 ppg, finishing as the TE2. It may not be likely, but there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Despite being burned by him back-to-back years, I’m going back to the well with Waller one more time in what I expect to be a huge rebound year.
Breece Hall Finishes Inside the Top 5 and Makes Everyone Fading Him Look Foolish
Prior to tearing his ACL, Breece Hall was averaging 16.4 ppg and well on his way to an RB1 finish. My guess is he would’ve ended the season above 17 ppg.
Had Hall not gotten hurt, not only would he be a surefire first-round pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts, but he would probably be ranked as a top-five RB. If not for the ACL, I would have Hall as my RB3 behind only CMC and Ekeler.
The only reason Hall’s ADP is down in Round 3 is because of his knee. That’s it. There’s minimal backfield competition. He’s a proven three-down back capable of catching passes. And the Jets’ offense will be much improved this year with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
What if Hall spent the offseason drinking some Adrian Peterson blood (which, as we saw in 2012, has special healing powers)? Every report on Hall’s injury says it was a clean tear — the best possible scenario if a player is to tear his ACL.
We already know what the upside is. If Hall hits the ground running from Week 1, 18+ ppg and a top-five finish is firmly in play, which will cause everyone who faded him to want to bang their heads against a wall for doing so.
Zach Charbonnet Outscores Kenneth Walker III
Does this qualify as scorching? It doesn’t feel like it should, but ADP says otherwise. Kenneth Walker III is currently going around RB16, while Zach Charbonnet is way down at RB33. That gap feels too large.
The Seattle Seahawks saw what Walker did last season and decided to use a premium second-round pick on Charbonnet. I think he’s going to play.
Walker’s rookie season wasn’t as good as the numbers suggest, depending on how you choose to view it. He had a ton of splash plays but also a ton of minimal-yardage ones. What if Walker can’t hit the home run this season and is inefficient?
Charbonnet should already be the primary passing-down back, giving him standalone RB3 value. If Walker struggles, Charbonnet could certainly take on more work.
I believe the Seahawks drafting Charbonnet is an indictment on Walker, and they’re looking for a reason to push the rookie. All Charbonnet has to do is give them one.
Samaje Perine Finishes as a Top-18 RB
To be fair, this may not seem scorching as we get closer to the season. It all hinges on Javonte Williams’ health. Currently, we don’t think Williams will be ready for Week 1 and don’t know exactly when he might return.
If 2022 J.K. Dobbins is any indication, Williams may not be 100% until well into the second half of the season. If that happens, absent this team signing someone like Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette, it will be Samaje Perine operating as the lead RB and possibly a three-down back.
With Cincinnati last season, we saw Perine post RB1 weeks filling in for Joe Mixon. He has the skill set. Even if Russell Wilson doesn’t rebound and the Broncos continue to be bad, Perine should see the volume necessary to be an every-week RB2. He currently has an RB35 ADP.
Rachaad White Doesn’t Lead the Bucs’ Backfield in Fantasy Points
Given the hype around Rachaad White and the complete lack of depth behind him, yeah, this counts as scorching.
White was one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last season. While he’s poised for a massive workload this season, his status as a late third-round pick doesn’t mean he automatically has job security.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Chase Edmonds are not particularly good. Sean Tucker is a UDFA rookie. It seems impossible to even figure out who the Bucs would play over White. But if White is as bad this year as he was last year, they’re going to look for an alternative.
I understand the appeal of White, especially given his pass-catching background, but he wasn’t good as a runner or receiver last season. He was 21st in yards per route run and averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. If White doesn’t improve, the answer to who leads this backfield in fantasy points may be someone not currently on the team.
Tyreek Hill Becomes the First WR To Achieve 2,000 Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the top two receivers in fantasy football. Cooper Kupp, if he and Matthew Stafford stay healthy, is probably going to be the overall WR1. That’s what’s most likely to happen. But if I had to pick one wide receiver to potentially reach 2,000 receiving yards, I truly believe Tyreek Hill is the only one capable.
Last season, in games in which Tua Tagovailoa played and didn’t leave early, Hill averaged 110.5 receiving yards per game. Extrapolate that over a full season, and we get 1,878 yards. He needs a mere 7.2 more yards per game to reach 2,000.
The Miami Dolphins’ offense with Tagovailoa was one of the most explosive in the league last season. They had a 58% neutral game-script pass rate overall, which was negatively impacted by Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson making starts.
Hill saw a 31.6% target share last season, second in the NFL. If he can maintain that, plus Tua plays all 17 games, it would only take a slight increase in yards per reception for Hill to reach 2,000 yards. If that happens, he’ll probably be the overall WR1 in fantasy unless he somehow only scores seven touchdowns again.
