Melvin Gordon may be 30 years old and coming off of a season with the Denver Broncos in which he totaled just 541 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per carry (his lowest rate since his rookie season), but the veteran RB did reach paydirt at least nine times in each of the six seasons prior. What Gordon’s role will be in the Baltimore Ravens‘ crowded backfield is yet to be determined, but he could certainly impact the fantasy football values of both J.K. Dobbins and Lamar Jackson.
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Fantasy Impact of Melvin Gordon Signing With the Baltimore Ravens
It’s more than fair to say Gordon showed a steep decline last season. Here’s a look at his percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards during his three seasons with the Broncos:
- 2020: 12.1%
- 2021: 11.3%
- 2022: 4.4%
Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, Braxton Berrios, and Gary Brightwell are some of the players who had more runs of 10+ yards last season than Gordon, so yeah, he might have lost a step. Or, more accurately, his eyes and body are no longer aligned.
Gordon thinks his body can make plays it simply can’t, something that his 1.02 yards per carry before contact hints at (57th of 63 players with 75+ carries last season).
Even if you’re only interested in Gordon as protection to your Dobbins investment (23 games played and 27 missed during his three seasons), you can do better. Gus Edwards not only has five years in this Baltimore system, he also owns a career average of 5.2 ypc and has just 519 touches on his NFL résumé (Gordon — 1,876).
Gordon’s signing could have an impact on the fantasy landscape, it’s just unlikely that he himself holds enough value to warrant a spot on your roster.
How Gordon Impacts the Rest of Baltimore’s Offense
J.K. Dobbins
This is where things could get a little dicey. While the writing seems to be on the wall for Gordon in terms of his NFL career, the man has proven to have a nose for the end zone (69 career scores in 108 games).
Over the course of his career, Gordon has converted 46.5% of his carries inside the 5-yard line into scores, with the bulk of his career rushing scores having come from in tight. If that is his role, fantasy managers need to understand that Dobbins’ ceiling takes a massive hit. The former second-round pick has 11 career rushing scores, and nine of those have come from inside the 5.
But wait, it gets worse. To be a viable fantasy running back in 2023, you either have to have scoring equity or versatility. I just raised some concern for the former and the latter has never been a calling card for Dobbins (25 catches in 23 career games).
Gordon, on the other hand, saw nearly 22% of his touches last season come in the passing game. If Todd Monken is going to truly open this offense up, Gordon’s track record could trump Dobbins’ youth and make this more of a committee situation than any one of us wants to think possible.
Lamar Jackson
As for Jackson, added backfield insurance is never going to be a bad thing, especially with a veteran like Gordon, who has experience when it comes to audibles and pass-coverage schemes. And while it’s reasonable to assume Gordon will be a threat in goal-line situations, that’s not where Jackson thrives in terms of fantasy production.
For his career, the majority of Jackson’s passing touchdowns have not come in goal-to-go situations, and his average TD run checks in at 16.4 yards.
I think you’re getting a little too cute if you try to spin this as a reason to change your Mark Andrews ranking, and the cluster of receivers vying for targets is still just that. We’re still at least a month away from knowing if Gordon will be in the mix come the regular season, but if he is, I’d move Dobbins from RB19 to RB22, with a fall to RB25 being possible based on reports of Gordon’s fitness/role.
Jackson is in a tight race with Joe Burrow for QB4 in my ranks, and that wouldn’t change. He’d remain in the same tier, and I’d be happy with landing the cheaper of those AFC North quarterbacks if I’m considering the position in the early fourth round.
