If you’re making Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles DFS picks for Sunday in Week 11, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Colts Considerations
Is Jonathan Taylor back? I mean, really back? Last year’s RB1 has battled injuries and inconsistency, and now he faces the formerly undefeated Eagles. Yes, Philly lost Monday night after the Commanders ran the ball a whopping 49 times while dominating offensive time of possession.
With Matt Ryan back at the helm for Indy, we might anticipate him targeting his trio of good-to-great wideouts (or perhaps even another trio of tight ends).
MORE: Early NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
But more realistically, this game is about Taylor and whether he can replicate the success of Washington’s lesser backfield. Because the Commanders averaged only 3.1 yards per carry on Monday. Yet, that was enough.
Philly’s given up a healthy 4.7 yards per carry even after containing (but, of course, not stopping) a running game led by Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Surely Taylor can hit 4.0. Surely the Colts will lean on him 25 or more times to keep the Eagles’ offense off the field for as long as possible.
And maybe — just maybe — Ryan will be able to pick his moment, just like Taylor Heinicke did, to keep the Eagles’ D on its heels and open the gates for a big Taylor output.
Eagles Considerations
What happened in Week 10? Maybe Philadelphia was overconfident at home against a beatable divisional rival. Or maybe the Commanders simply out-coached and out-executed the NFL’s last undefeated squad.
The Eagles are now without Dallas Goedert. As DFS competitors, that makes our job a little easier, as Goedert was one of the league’s most targeted and more capable (81% catch rate) tight ends.
And while Indy has largely underwhelmed (they were my preseason pick to win the division), they have the second-stingiest run defense (3.8 yards per carry). They’re “good” against the pass, so we might see the Eagles try to establish the run. And if unsuccessful, they may resort to a heavy dose of Jalen Hurts throwing or scrambling for first downs.
Miles Sanders barely touched the ball in the first half on Monday. I’d be shocked if he gets any fewer than five touches in the first quarter this weekend. But that doesn’t make him playable in DFS, especially with Philly eyeing a deep playoff run. We might see a little more backfield versatility on display as Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott get worked in, keeping Sanders around his 16-carry-per-game average.
Top DFS Picks for Colts vs. Eagles
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($16,500 Captain Cost)
A statement game for a team still firmly in the postseason hunt. Or an unutterable collapse of what is, on paper, a strong offense. I’m going with the first scenario — a roughly 26-114-2 rushing line. Taylor will get all the work he can handle and, if necessary, more.
Flex: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($11,400)
We bench him at our peril. Hurts has scored 21+ DFS points in all but two games this season. Even in a relatively tough matchup, he’s a must-start as the focal point of a dynamic attack.
Flex: WR A.J. Brown, Eagles ($10,600)
Last week, I urged readers to lean into the slumping DeVonta Smith. This week, we pay more for A.J. Brown, who has monster upside with Goedert sidelined. Brown and Smith are the only strong contenders for 7+ targets. And Brown should bounce back.
Flex: WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($7,800)
Oh, and keep rolling with Smith. I trust him more than any Colts receiver, which might be a mistake. But that’s how I see the game flowing.
Flex: RB Boston Scott ($3,400)
This is a tough call. With potentially three Eagles TEs rotating in this game, I’d rather take my chances on a backup RB with some proven pop if he gets enough touches.
MORE: NFL MVP Odds 2022
It also assumes Sanders gets his normal workload but not much more.
Flex: TE Mo Alie-Cox, Colts ($200)
We have only $300 left. Mo Alie-Cox earned some attention when Ryan was the starter earlier this season. With Ryan back at the helm, the hope is that he’ll look to his veteran tight end at least once near the goal line.
