If you’re playing a Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Chargers vs. Jaguars DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Chargers DFS considerations
As some of you have read elsewhere on the PFN website, I’m picking one winner each week for survivor pool competitors. After starting with the Ravens and Broncos in Weeks 1 and 2, I’ve selected the Chargers to win in Week 3.
It’s hard to know whether Jacksonville has taken a big leap forward, or if L.A. will expose them as a work-in-progress. Either way, I feel confident in the Bolts rebounding after last Thursday night’s loss to the Chiefs.
In crafting a DFS lineup for this matchup, my biggest focus is on Austin Ekeler. Few players offer such a high floor and high ceiling. Despite averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry, the team’s showing no signs of capping his usage, as he’s already up to 41 touches — a 17-game pace of 349, which would easily be his career high.
If we want to include Ekeler, we’ll need to pay a lot. 10+ points seems realistic. But what are the odds that L.A. hits cruise control in the second half by giving Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel more run? Ekeler can’t sustain 20+ touches per game, can he?
The receiving corps is a secondary concern, only because there are several good value plays. Joshua Palmer is a bit of an X-factor after Keenan Allen missed last week. However, Palmer lacks the ceiling needed in DFS tournaments, especially if he’s above $8,500. And of course, Mike Williams has blow-up potential — though his floor remains quite risky.
Jaguars DFS considerations
The James Robinson vs. Travis Etienne Jr. debate will rage on for another week, and possibly all season. This is the backfield Jacksonville planned to have last year before Etienne was knocked out for his entire rookie campaign.
Now he’s back and looking spry. I’m very interested in seeing their price differential before determining whether to take one . . . or even both.
Elsewhere, I generally avoid QBs in DFS unless they’re (a) quite cheap, which is rare, or (b) solid bets for 20+ points. Spending $12,000, for example, on a 14-point QB won’t cut it.
Trevor Lawrence on the road against the Chargers doesn’t inspire massive confidence. Yes, he could break through with 16-17 points. But 20+? 300 passing yards and a couple scores? That seems like a stretch.
So we’re left with a pricey Christian Kirk or a lower-ceiling option like Zay Jones or Marvin Jones, or perhaps even Evan Engram. In this case, I want to load up on 2-3 key Chargers playmakers, and then determine which high-upside Jags can round out the roster.
Recommended DFS lineup
My thinking around this entire DFS lineup begins and ends with Justin Herbert — specifically his health. We could talk ourselves into starting him without hesitation, or we could hedge with the understanding that he’s more susceptible to re-injury, and/or that the Chargers might operate a little more conservatively with quicker passes and more running plays to mitigate risks.
With that in mind, the relatively struggling Ekeler ($10,400 normally, $15,600 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. Some of you might prefer one of the biggest early-season TE surprises, Gerald Everett (who, I believe, is a major sell-high in fantasy). Everett certainly should be part of this lineup at only $6,200, but Ekeler offers the kind of elite production we look for in DFS Captains.
Meanwhile, I’d recommend steering clear of Robinson ($7,800), who has been deceptively TD-dependent, which worked out against the overwhelmed Commanders and Colts. While the Chargers yielded the third-most rushing TDs last year, they haven’t given up one yet despite facing Josh Jacobs and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Robinson on the road with 3.8 yards per carry and only three receptions concerns me.
Instead, I’d lean into Etienne at only $6,600. I’m envisioning him getting more involved through the air, which should keep his floor high while playing catch up. I’d also recommend Evan Engram ($5,000) after mistakenly dismissing him over the summer. He looks reborn in a new city and a more competent offense.
That leaves two spots — one for Herbert ($11,400) and the other for the Chargers D/ST ($4,600), which I envision terrorizing Lawrence just enough to crack 12 points. And why Herbert, despite what I assume will be a more conservative approach? Because he’s still a good bet for 200+ yards and two scores. That’s good enough in a contest that (I believe) will fall short of 400 total passing yards.
