It’s been nearly a month since Aaron Rodgers appeared on “The Pat McAfee Show” to declare his intentions to play for the New York Jets. At the time, it appeared a trade between Gang Green and the Green Bay Packers was just around the corner, but the two sides are still haggling. With no deal in sight, new reporting has highlighted the disconnect between the two franchises.
Jets, Packers at an Impasse in Aaron Rodgers Trade
Appearing on ESPN’s “Wilde and Tausch,” Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports suggested that the Packers are holding firm on their Rodgers trade demands. Per Robinson, Green Bay wants a second-round pick in 2023 and a first-round pick in 2024. Additionally, the Packers are willing to send a conditional 2025 selection to New York if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season.
Robinson added that Green Bay wants a “straight shot” first-rounder from the Jets, meaning they’re not interested in a conditional pick tied to Rodgers’ or New York’s performance next season.
However, Robinson said the “Jets, and (owner) Woody Johnson specifically, are not gonna do it.” New York might be amenable to sending two second-round picks — one in 2023 and one in 2024 — to the Packers, but the idea of trading a first-rounder seems to be off the table for the Jets.
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Johnson reportedly has multiple reasons for being wary of shipping a Day 1 pick to Green Bay. For one, the Jets owner was reportedly scared off by Rodgers indicating he was “90% retired” before entering his darkness retreat earlier this year.
Additionally, Robinson said Johnson is troubled by the idea of sending a potentially early Round 1 selection to the Packers. Citing the examples of the Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson trades, each of which eventually landed the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos top-six draft picks, Johnson seems worried that the Jets might end up trading an early first-round pick if things don’t go as planned for Gang Green in 2022.
There’s no real urgency from either team to complete this trade, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently said “it doesn’t sound like” Rodgers will be dealt before the NFL Draft. If that’s true, New York’s 2023 draft picks obviously won’t be part of a package, which could necessitate the Jets and Packers returning to the drawing board.
It’s unclear when a Rodgers trade will be resolved. Jets general manager Joe Douglas recently told a New York crowd that Rodgers is “gonna be here.” But the Jets can’t sign off on a Rodgers acquisition without Johnson’s approval — if the club’s owner is dug in, an agreement could take a while.
Why the Jets Could Get a Conditional Pick in a Rodgers Trade
Rodgers’ contract is one of the more complicated deals in the NFL. Containing multiple option bonuses, his pact could potentially throw a wrench in trade negotiations between the Jets and Packers.
While Rodgers will be due a $58.3 million option bonus once he’s traded to New York, that figure will be treated like a signing bonus and prorated over the life of his contract. As such, Rodgers’ cap charges will be pretty reasonable over the next two years: $15.79 million in 2023 and $32.542 million in 2024.
However, things will get dicey if Rodgers retires after the 2023 campaign. At that point, the remainder of that prorated signing bonus would immediately accelerate onto the Jets’ salary cap. Theoretically, that would leave New York with $43.725 million in dead money. That would represent the largest dead cap hit in NFL history, ahead of the $40.525 million the Atlanta Falcons absorbed when they traded Matt Ryan in 2022.
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The Jets could finagle Rodgers’ deal by signing him to a new contract for salary cap purposes. That would allow New York to spread the dead money over two seasons: $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025.
Either way, it’s a lot of money! And it makes sense that the Jets are worried about sacrificing significant draft assets to get Rodgers for a single season and be forced to contend with that dead money.
That’s why, as Robinson noted, the Packers are willing to send a conditional pick to the Jets in 2025. It would essentially be compensation for New York being required to take that financial burden.
Still, it doesn’t seem that concession is enough for the Jets or Johnson to make a trade immediately. So, for now, we wait.
