If you’re playing a Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Raiders vs. Broncos DFS lineup considerations
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Raiders DFS considerations
The 0-3 Raiders are in must-win mode. This is not how the franchise drew things up when they acquired Davante Adams. While I urged PFN Pass subscribers to fade Adams in fantasy drafts at his lofty WR4 ADP, I didn’t expect Derek Carr to struggle this much.
The yardage and touchdowns are solid. But four interceptions in the face of three very close losses are tough to swallow.
Adams could be the key in this game. While earning a healthy 17 targets the past two weeks, he’s reeled in only seven for 48 yards. Yes, a touchdown per week is nice.
But with their backs against the wall, Carr likely will focus as much or more on their No. 1 receiver. The same might be said for Darren Waller, who had only five looks last weekend — tied for his fewest targets since Week 3 of 2020.
And then there’s breakout star Mack Hollins. His DFS price might make him too expensive to pair with this contest’s highest-ceiling players, including Josh Jacobs.
Yes, even the relatively underperforming Jacobs has to be considered after averaging a healthy 16.3 touches in his first three games. Half of his 28 career TDs have come from the one- or two-yard line. He’s the ultimate boom-bust RB starter.
Broncos DFS considerations
Denver’s offense has just plain struggled, although they’re still capable of piling on yards. I’ve missed the mark with them so far, believing Russell Wilson would be the key to an electric offense not seen in this city since 2014. Instead, Wilson has struggled, and the team has left dozens of points on the board near the goal line.
The easiest path would be to hold off on Wilson until he returns to form. But who does that leave on this team? The Raiders’ defense is yielding only 3.8 yards per carry.
Vegas’ weakness thus far has been through the air, where they’re giving up the seventh-most passing yards, including a surprising 252 to the Titans, when Derrick Henry enjoyed the third-best receiving day (5-58) of his career.
So perhaps we should consider the pricey Javonte Williams, who’s tied for the second among RBs with 21 targets. A high 2022 ceiling isn’t yet evident, but his floor should be strong enough to give him a chance at reaching it.
The same goes for Courtland Sutton, although a healthy Jerry Jeudy makes this a toss-up decision between two expensive starting WRs.
Raiders vs. Broncos top DFS lineup
OK, let’s get right to it. Waller’s $8,200 price concerns me. I want at least four elite-caliber players in this lineup. Although Waller is positionally elite, this isn’t like 2020 when he dominated playing alongside Nelson Agholor and pre-prime Hunter Renfrow. As one of the most expensive options, Waller lacks the blow-up potential of comparably priced players.
So we’ll start with the highest-upside player in this game: Adams ($11,400 normally, $17,100 as Captain) in our Captain slot. I’m assuming the win-or-bust Raiders will finally play like Super Bowl contenders, if only for one game. That means including Hollins ($5,800) and Keelan Cole ($400). Yes, Cole is the ultimate flier. But with Renfrow expected to be sidelined again, Cole should earn at least a 50% snap count, giving him an outside shot at a 3-45 receiving line.
Simple rule of thumb for DFS: If we’re starting three receivers, we need to lean into starting their QB. Because if even two of these receivers play at or above expectations, Carr ($9,800) should be no less than terrific. We’re taking a risk here. The Broncos’ pass defense has been solid. But after facing Geno Smith, Davis Mills, and Jimmy Garoppolo, they’re not yet deserving of the “great pass defense” label.
That leaves $16,900 for two Broncos: Jeudy ($7,600) and Sutton ($8,800). This lineup assumes Denver will operate in catch-up mode, rendering their backfield riskier than usual. In other words, paying $7,200 for Melvin Gordon III or $9,000 for backfield teammate Williams would work only if we believe Denver will control the game-script narrative.
Leave a Reply