If you’re playing an Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Colts vs. Titans DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Colts DFS considerations
What a victory last weekend for the Colts, who are now one win away from potentially moving into first place in the AFC South. Not bad for a team on the cusp of dropping to 0-2-1 against the fierce Chiefs.
And what rhymes with “fierce”? Pierce, as in Alec Pierce, continues to be a name to watch. I pushed the rookie as one of my favorite non-top-50 WRs this summer, and a Week 1 concussion delayed his inevitable breakout. A confident Colts unit with a bolstered receiving corps can win this division.
So, as we craft our DFS lineup, a cheap Pierce might be a difference-maker in an otherwise top-heavy grouping. Matt Ryan probably will be too expensive, given his relatively low ceiling. And if we take Ryan, we probably won’t be able to afford both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
Nyheim Hines is another relatively cheap option. The overall RB15 two years ago (yes, it’s true), Hines was phased out last season, despite protestations from my fraying, Cheetos-stained couch. (To be clear, I was the one protesting while sitting on my couch; my couch doesn’t know how to talk.) He’s been a fringe fantasy starter despite not scoring. With Tennessee giving up only 3.5 yards per carry, the Colts might need to use Hines a little more in the passing game, including near the goal line. There’s certainly some major pop in his game, as well as the usual low floor for customarily single-digit-touch RBs.
Titans DFS considerations
For Tennessee, Derrick Henry and Robert Woods finally got going last week, although it was against the 0-3 Raiders. Indy presents a unique challenge for a team with little room for error. If Henry has trouble moving the ball, Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have the personnel to dominate or even “sort of” thrive.
Woods’ one-game resurgence might signal a sustained resurgence the rest of the season. Or he could take a backseat to rookie Treylon Burks. Realistically, there won’t be room to place both in our lineup because high-priced WRs are often bad bets unless we expect them to A) score or B) be heavily targeted. But while Indy gave up the second-most points to fantasy WRs last season, they’ve yielded the seventh-fewest this season.
As a result, Woods seems risky in a relatively muted passing attack. Instead, we should consider Dontrell Hilliard if the price is right. Yes, of course, Henry would be ideal. However, paying for him (and Taylor and Pittman) would force us to take at least two low-floor fliers, and I’m not ready to bet on Henry having a blow-up performance. With Hilliard, we’d get someone with big-play ability. However, he’s averaged only four touches across two contests. Hilliard would be the ultimate flier if we can snag him for, say, half the price of someone like Woods.
Recommended DFS lineup
This lineup assumes a 10+ point Colts victory, led by Taylor ($11,800 normally, $17,700 as Captain), who belongs in our Captain slot. He’s joined by Pittman ($10,600) and Pierce ($5,000). I can’t easily make the more expensive Hines fit in this lineup. Otherwise, he’d join it or replace Pierce outright.
The only Tennessee player I’d recommend is Henry ($11,200). If Tannehill keeps targeting him in the passing game, then Henry could be worth every penny, even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
We’re left with $5,500 for two slots. Kylen Granson ($1,000) takes one of them. He’s the ultimate TD-dependent flier, but the price is right. And I’m recommending the Colts D/ST ($4,400) — an underrated unit that should find its footing against the (mostly) overmatched Titans.