The Somewhat High-Flying Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jared Goff

If you’re betting on Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions player props for Week 7, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.

All prop bets below are based on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. At DraftKings, you can cash in if either QB throws over 1 yard. Bet $5 and Win $150 in free bets here!

Top Cowboys vs. Lions Player Props To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Ezekiel Elliott Prop Bets

First off, for two seasons, I’ve been sounding the alarm with readers about Ezekiel Elliott, having spent several years studying the correlation between RB workload and regression. His rapidly declining broken-tackle rate and a reduced role in the passing game have capped his ceiling.

That said, I shared with PFN Pass subscribers this summer that “if Elliott is indeed the healthiest he’s been since 2019, there’s a somewhat narrow path to regaining a top-10 foothold.” That wouldn’t make him a top-10 option every week or even most weeks. But I could envision a few contests where he could rack up buckets of points, compensating for the inevitable slumps.

The Lions this weekend, and then the Texans in Week 14, mark two games where Elliott could recapture his glory days. RBs are averaging the second-most fantasy points against Detroit than against any other team . . . except Houston.

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And since Detroit is on the docket, Elliott’s production predictions should be front-and-center in bettors’ minds, especially with Dak Prescott poised to return. Finally, we have an (almost) healthy offense. I can’t envision Dallas scoring less than 30 points on Sunday. 40+ is realistic.

Elliott should be a significant reason why. His betting lines assume “more of the same.” But Prescott + the Lions is a perfect storm for an RB who’s arguably on the decline, but who still flashes excellence.

Rushing yards over 63.5
(-115) — DraftKings

CeeDee Lamb Prop Bets

CeeDee Lamb has done fine with Cooper Rush at QB, averaging 76 receiving yards in five Rush starts. Not bad at all, especially given some of the tough competition he’s faced.

So am I missing something when I see his betting line is 72.5 receiving yards? Perhaps. I’m always missing something these days. My wife says it will pass, but I think she’s humoring me.

Detroit’s given up the seventh-most passing yards per game. For context, four of Lamb’s opponents have been among the nine stingiest defenses in this category. The other two opponents are 13th and 15th best.

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There is no logical reason to believe Lamb will struggle against the Lions. Maybe he’ll suffer an early injury; nothing we can do about that. Maybe Prescott won’t look his way because they had a spat before the game; nothing we can do about that. So we’ll keep this simple. Lamb’s odds of a breakout performance are good, if not great.

Receiving yards over 72.5
(-115) — FanDuel

Jared Goff Player Props

Jared Goff was my favorite undervalued fantasy QB this summer, as PFN Pass subscribers know all too well. I took a leap with that prediction based on many factors, and his relatively soft early-season schedule was one of them.

Now he’s facing Dallas on the road. While some of his key playmakers are returning, that might not matter. Goff’s lofty betting lines assume continued semi-dominance. I’m betting against him this weekend.

Passing yards under 248.5
(-110) — FanDuel

Passing TDs under 1.5
(-115) — DraftKings

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