We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
Top Ravens vs. Browns Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Justin Tucker Prop Bets
I advised readers to bet the “over” on a recent Justin Tucker prop, and he came through — which I realize is like recommending avoiding I-95 during rush hour (shoutout to all you East Coasters).
We are witnessing one of the greatest NFL kickers in history, and at only 32 years old, Tucker’s still in his prime. He’s hit a 50+ yard field goal in four of his last five contests. Since 2016, he’s nailed 34 of 41 from that distance, which is 83%. Yes, 83%.
How incredible is that? In the history of the league, only 34 kickers have been more accurate from all distances. That’s partly why Tucker is the NFL leader in career field-goal accuracy.
And because I love pouring over statistics every day (and most nights), here’s something else pretty compelling: each season from 2017 to 2021, the Ravens were in the top half in the league in fourth-down conversion rate, including top seven in four of those five years. Not surprisingly, they were also top seven in fourth-down conversions per game during this stretch.
Why does this matter? Because this season, Baltimore is tied for fourth-to-last in fourth-down conversions per game, in large part because they’re tied for last in conversion rate. In other words, they’re no longer a great bet to extend drives on fourth downs.
Will this impact their decision-making inside the opposing 40-to-45-yard line? Might they be more inclined to lean on Tucker for a near-automatic three points, rather than roll the dice on a (presently) low-probability fourth-down conversion?
And as always, probabilities are the key. The lowest-risk bets are not for the casual or compulsive. We need to examine the granular to better understand each team’s in-game strategies and decision points. On 4th-and-2 from the opposing 30-yard line on the opening drive, are the Ravens more likely to go for it, or kick the field goal?
Last year, this was a tougher call to predict. This year, particularly with a marginally improved defense, the numbers suggest Baltimore will take the “safe” points.
Ravens first drive: Field-goal attempt (+350) — DraftKings
Ravens first drive: Field-goal made (+400) — DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett Player Props
Since giving up 461 passing yards to the Dolphins in Week 2, the Ravens have yielded fewer and fewer passing yards in each successive contest. They even stymied the Bills and Bengals. No small feat.
They should be able to keep glorified game manager Jacoby Brissett in check. The 30-year-old Brissett needed 45 pass attempts last weekend to rack up a season-high 266 yards. That’s not sustainable for a team that failed to establish the run against the Patriots. Even if Baltimore wins comfortably, we should see more Nick Chubb and less Brissett.
Passing yards under 214.5 (-110) — FanDuel
Passing TDs under 1.5 (-190) — DraftKings
Nick Chubb Player Props
The Ravens have been middling against the run, with opposing rushers averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Of course, Chubb isn’t your normal rusher. Entering last weekend, he would have been on pace for roughly 3,000 rushing yards if he’d matched Derrick Henry’s workload through Week 5 of 2020. In other words, Chubb has been playing at a nearly peerless level.
As referenced above, the Browns’ key to victory is not Brissett airing it out. It’s pounding the ball through their line and picking up four or five yards at a time, and in Chubb’s case, often more. Baltimore’s run-defense stats are a little skewed as five of six opposing No. 1 RBs have run very well against them. Only Saquon Barkley struggled, and that was an even more one-dimensional offense than what the Browns bring.
Rushing yards over 77.5 (-115) — DraftKings