Start Khalil Herbert With David Montgomery Out, And Who Replaces Sterling Shepard?

If you’re playing a New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Giants vs. Bears DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Giants DFS considerations

After a disastrous 2021 season, conventional wisdom stated that Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley would be gone after the 2022 campaign, while Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney would form a long-term nucleus of a budding passing attack. How times have changed.

With a resurgent Barkley playing for another contract (presumably elsewhere), Jones using his legs more than ever, and Richie James somehow stepping up, the Giants and their new coaching staff are exceeding basement-level expectations in unexpected ways. Losing Sterling Shepard for the season hurts. And yet, they’re facing an ideal matchup while mending their wounds.

The Bears have given up the second-most rushing yards this season, paving the way for Barkley as a near-automatic DFS start. The rest of our Giants hinge on what we think of their defense against the subpar Bears offense, as well as the subpar Jones against a beatable Bears defense. A fringe, ultra-cheap receiver like Darius Slayton could be a surprise play.

Bears DFS considerations

Meanwhile, Justin Fields has completed no more than eight pass attempts in each of his three contests this season, while Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are largely afterthoughts. David Montgomery’s knee/ankle injuries could be addition by subtraction, assuming Khalil Herbert maintains the dynamism he’s shown since breaking onto the scene last year.

Still, this remains a mostly one-dimensional offense. Although New York’s yielding a sizable 5.2 yards per carry, Herbert would require a significant DFS investment. Ten to 12 points won’t help us win. He’d need to be “the guy” for Chicago.

And we can’t (yet) count out Mooney. He’s on pace for 153 yards this season. Of course, that’s ridiculous. He’ll get his numbers. While 1,000+ might not be realistic, if we project 35+ yards each week for the rest of the season, that would put him over 600. It’s rare for any NFL team not to produce a 600+ yard receiver, and Mooney is clear and away their most talented WR. So depending on his price, he could be a fascinating addition.

Recommended DFS lineup

There are things we know as of Friday, and there are contingencies to consider if circumstances dramatically change by Sunday morning. Regarding what we know, Barkley ($12,800 normally, $19,200 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. He has the highest realistic upside of anyone in this game. He eats up nearly one-third of our budget, but it’s worth it.

Let’s also bet on his quarterback, Jones ($10,000), who’s using his mobility like he did two years ago, elevating his upside to the 17-19 point range. In a relatively low-scoring game, that could be a key to victory. I also like teammates Daniel Bellinger ($5,400) and Graham Gano ($4,200). Both are cheap and have strong 10+ point potential. Yes, Bellinger could step up with Shepard shelved.

With our final two slots, I’d roll with Herbert ($11,000), who could comfortably lead all non-QB Bears in total yards. That leaves $400, enabling us to take a shot on Darius Slayton ($200). This approach also assumes Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson remain sidelined (a strong probability as of Friday afternoon), leaving Slayton as the likely No. 3/4 WR who could actually overtake Golladay.

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