Predicting Outcomes For Zach Wilson, Breece Hall, Michael Carter, And Najee Harris

If you’re playing a Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Steelers vs. Jets DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Steelers DFS considerations

How much longer will Mitch Trubisky be under center? The answer probably is “not much longer,” as their next four opponents will be the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles. Oh, and three of those will be on the road. Head coach Mike Tomlin might not have a choice but to replace his starting QB during the Week 9 bye, if not earlier.

Of course, it’s not all Trubisky’s fault. Najee Harris (3.2 yards per carry) has regressed behind a porous offensive line — although Jaylen Warren (4.7 ypc) has looked just fine. This has to be a get-right game for Pittsburgh. Otherwise, their postseason hopes could evaporate in the competitive AFC North.

Opposing teams are certainly running on the Jets, as New York’s defense has seen the ninth-most rushing attempts. However, they’ve held up well, yielding only 3.7 yards per carry despite facing stalwarts like Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and (the allegedly still “good”) Joe Mixon. So should we trust Harris as a high-upside RB? And if so, can we afford to invest in the Steelers’ top receivers?

Jets DFS considerations

Zach Wilson is back! What will this mean? It’s a bit chaotic to go from a sack-friendly veteran presence like Joe Flacco throwing 52 passes a game to a sack-friendly young QB with 13 largely forgettable starts under his belt. Unless Pittsburgh somehow breaks this game open (unlikely), I’m anticipating a far more conservative offense featuring Breece Hall and Michael Carter.

Yes, Garrett Wilson and/or Elijah Moore and/or Corey Davis might be startable in DFS. But can we trust TE breakout sensation Tyler Conklin? Probably not, unless Wilson’s slinging it 40+ times.

Pittsburgh has been pretty good against the run, meaning Hall and/or Carter will need to remain heavily involved in the passing game to elevate their floors to DFS-startable levels. The unknowns surrounding Wilson’s impact in his first game of the season create intriguing chaos. DFS competitors surely will be all over the place with their selections. Ours need to consider the likelihood of a defensive battle.

Recommended DFS lineup

In the past week, we went from Flacco possibly getting one more start to Zach Wilson making his long-awaited return. I’m designing this lineup in the belief the Steelers’ defense — even without T.J. Watt — will overwhelm the 23-year-old signal-caller making only his 14th NFL start. It also assumes that facing a negative game script, he’ll target his favorite receiver from 2021.

As a result, the Steelers D/ST ($5,000 normally, $7,500 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. Their biggest headache could be Moore, the still-ascending Jets phenom who’s been overshadowed by rookie Garrett Wilson. Moore ($6,600) is also $1,800 cheaper, which certainly helps make this lineup work.

The remaining spots go to Trubisky ($8,800), Diontae Johnson ($10,800), Pat Freiermuth ($5,400), and Harris ($10,800). The opposing Jets defense is 11th-worst against fantasy WRs and seventh-worst against fantasy RBs. Jacoby Brissett had the best completion percentage of his career against this defense in Week 2. If Pittsburgh ever hits 30+ points this season, this is the game to do it.

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