London Calling Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Or Alexander Mattison?

If you’re playing a New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings DFS lineup for this Sunday Week 4 clash, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Saints vs. Vikings DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Saints DFS considerations

London’s first game of the season features two teams going a little bit in opposite directions. Despite Jameis Winston’s broken ribs, the Saints recorded their most offensive yards of the season this past Sunday (426) while their stout defense yielded only 293. Yet, they still lost, producing only 14 points despite a breakout performance by rookie Chris Olave.

Notably, Alvin Kamara has caught only five of 11 passes for a paltry 19 yards in his two contests, which is far below his career averages. Can we trust Kamara? Minnesota’s defense has been middling at best on the ground, yielding 4.8 yards per carry. More concerningly, they’ve given up one rushing score every 17.4 carries — one of the league’s worst marks. A healthy Kamara should have his best game of the season.

There’s so much potential for this franchise, especially with a resurgent Michael Thomas. But Winston’s five interceptions and 11 sacks spell trouble for a team that needs to turn things around quickly. This weekend, with Thomas out and Winston doubtful as of Friday, Olave might be the key. Or perhaps it will be Jarvis Landry’s turn. As we know, production often ebbs and flows. Fading the ebb and leaning into the flow are big keys to success.

Vikings DFS considerations

For Minnesota, Dalvin Cook’s shoulder injury matters, and yet, Alexander Mattison has proven to be a top-12 RB when called upon to start. The Vikings can win this one even if they’re not at their best. If their passing game clicks, it’ll be hard to stop them.

That said, this supposedly pass-happy attack hasn’t quite gelled, and Justin Jefferson’s recent struggles are one reason why. While he saw only six targets last week, Jefferson converted 12 targets in Week 2 into merely 48 scoreless yards. Kirk Cousins has posted his lowest completion percentage since 2014. Not a great sign, especially entering a tough matchup against the Saints’ defense.

Muddying things more, Adam Thielen has found his footing, while Irv Smith Jr. and K.J. Osborn loom. This is the most “complete” offense the Vikings have enjoyed in years. But that makes things tougher when crafting a DFS lineup. Should we spend big on someone like Jefferson, or should we take chances on a couple of cheaper plays (Osborn and Smith, for example) so that we have the cap space to secure top New Orleans talent?

Recommended DFS lineup

This lineup hits our $60,000 cap on the nose, and it begins unconventionally with Landry ($5,600 normally, $8,400 as Captain). The veteran receiver still has near-elite potential (see: Week 1), and it’s not farfetched to think he’ll serve as Andy Dalton’s clear-cut No. 1 or No. 2 target, compiling as many as nine looks against a beatable Vikings pass D that’s yielded the seventh-most completions and fifth-most receiving yards.

This approach enables us to invest in Dalton ($6,000), Kamara ($9,200), and Olave ($8,600). While I like Marquez Callaway ($2,000), he’s not assured No. 3 WR usage alongside other customary backups like Tre’Quan Smith and Donte Harty. So Callaway offers too much downside, even at his cheap price.

That leaves us with $17,800 for two slots. Cousins ($9,600) and Thielen ($7,400) could be a terrific stack, and there’s objectively nothing wrong with going that route. However, I’d recommend Jefferson ($11,600) and Osborn ($6,200). This is purely a ceiling play. Cousins and Thielen arguably have a higher floor. But Jefferson’s the only one in this group with realistic 28+ point potential against New Orleans.

Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to top