Assessing J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary, And Gabe Davis

If you’re playing a Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Ravens vs. Bills DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Ravens DFS considerations

Two teams vanquished by the Dolphins will face off to see who will unexpectedly drop to 2-2. The key here is Buffalo’s banged-up defense. Last week, Miami prevailed despite attempting only 20 passes (compared to Josh Allen’s 63). In fact, the Bills racked up 497 offensive yards, more than doubling the Dolphins’ 212 — and lost.

While Lamar Jackson will be tough to contain, Buffalo still has a high-end defense despite their holes. This one could come down to whichever team has the ball last. As J.K. Dobbins continues his slow return to 100%, Buffalo holds several key advantages on the ground which could force Jackson to throw early and often. Factor in the strong possibility that the Ravens’ defense will yield 24+ points to the Bills, and we can envision how Jackson might need to keep throwing deep into the fourth quarter.

That opens the door for decent days from Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. Then again, are we comfortable investing a large sum of DFS dollars on receivers who might not exceed 60 yards each? Do we go cheap with the ascending Devin Duvernay, or even rookie Isaiah Likely? Or do we believe enough in Baltimore’s defense to invest in their all-world kicker?

Bills DFS considerations

Devin Singletary is Buffalo’s X-factor this weekend. After two very quiet performances, he blew up in Week 3 . . . on 11 targets. He’s deceptively overvalued in a crowded backfield that includes a resurgent Zack Moss and dynamic rookie James Cook. However, he has a golden opportunity to improve his rushing efficiency (currently 3.5 yards per carry) against a defense giving up a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. If Singletary comfortably leads his backfield in touches, he could break through.

There’s more clarity surrounding Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and even Gabe Davis. All three are well-positioned to produce sizable numbers on Sunday. We probably can’t afford to take all three unless we go cheap with our other two slots. Davis brings more boom-bust potential, so that might help with our decision.

And we can’t ignore secondary receivers like Isaiah McKenzie and underutilized tight end Dawson Knox. The Bills have plenty of fliers to choose from. The question is whether the DFS market has sharply undervalued one of them.

Recommended DFS lineup

Let’s work backwards on this lineup, beginning with a Friday morning report that the ultra-cheap Jake Kumerow ($800) will miss Week 4. That opens the door for an extra target or two for other tertiary options like Reggie Gilliam ($1,800) or Jamison Crowder ($2,800). While none of these guys normally would be anywhere close to dependable, we’ll need to consider at least one in what’s shaping up to be a top-heavy slate.

We’ll begin with the incomparable Allen ($12,800 normally, $19,200 as Captain) in our Captain slot. While we could save funds by selecting a cheaper Captain, it wouldn’t materially improve our odds. Let’s also include Diggs ($11,400) and Jackson ($12,600).

In some ways, it’s a huge risk taking these three guys. But all three have strong 30+ point potential, and we can’t shy away from those ceilings.

We’re left with $6,800 for three players. Yeah, not ideal, but we made this bed, so we have to lie in it — or sell it for a golden bed adorned with crystals mined on Neptune by time travelers who’ve returned to the year 2022 to help you sleep easier.

I’m calling an audible. No Gilliam. No Crowder. Instead, assuming Buffalo will avenge their Week 3 loss in style against one of the league’s worst-performing defenses, let’s go all in on their two non-starting running backs, Moss ($4,400) and Cook ($2,200). These two could combine for 10+ touches, including several receptions. If they can collectively squeeze out double-digit points, they’ll be worth the investment.

With our final $200, I’m recommending Demarcus Robinson. Not safe. No high ceiling. But assuming Jackson’s throwing often in the second half while playing catch-up, Robinson could sneak past an injury-plagued Bills secondary for a 62-yard score.

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