Super Bowl 58 is just days away, which means it is time for everyone to really start thinking about their bets for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers matchup. Therefore, our NFL betting experts have put together their best bets for Super Bowl 58 so that you can start placing your wagers ahead of Sunday’s game.
Super Bowl 58 Odds and Best Bets
Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The narrative heading into the Super Bowl is around the greatness of Mahomes and, of course, the presence of Taylor Swift. Overlooked, to a degree, is Isiah Pacheco, a player that I believe is set to impact this game as much as anyone.
The Panthers and Cardinals were two of the worst teams in the league this season; that much we can agree on, right? They combined to win six games and were rarely competitive down the stretch.
Well, those are the only two defenses with a lower rush EPA this season than the 49ers. We give Andy Reid plenty of credit for being an offensive genius, and I trust him holding my money in a bet like this as I am banking on him exploiting the primary weakness of his opponent.
Pacheco has carried the ball 15+ times in eight of his past nine games, and the lone exception was that loss on Christmas day against the Raiders that featured a pair of defensive touchdowns in seven seconds and 10 Mahomes rush attempts.
That game happened, but it’s not exactly something I’d call repeatable.
Pacheco has cleared this number in all three games this postseason, and that hasn’t happened by accident. Simply put, he gets harder to tackle with time. His yards gained per carry after contact are spiking, something we saw down the stretch of last season as well.
- 2023: After Week 12, YPC after contact up 22.7%
- 2022: After Week 14, YPC after contact up 21%
Given the point spread in this game, I don’t anticipate game script being a major issue — if we can pencil in Pacheco for 15+ totes in this one, I feel good about cashing this ticket.
Brock Purdy Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: If you want to get your hands dirty and craft passing yardage projections for this game, I have the article for you: Early Picks for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.
MORE: Sportsbooks Hate Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey – Here’s Why
In short, the Chiefs are an elite pressure defense that suits itself well to exactly what the 49ers want to do through the air — quick-hitting passes that allow their elite play-makers to get the ball in their hands in space.
My projection math returns this as a good bet regardless of how you think the game plays out, though it does gain win equity if you believe that the Chiefs end up winning this game.
No Score in the First 6 Minutes (-135 at DraftKings)
Soppe: This is the first of many different sorts of bets we will be detailing over the next 1.5 days and one that I feel good about jumping on now.
- “No” has cashed in two of the three Mahomes Super Bowls
- “No” has cashed in six of the past seven Super Bowls
- Winner in eight of their past nine games
- “No” has cashed in 15 of 20 Chiefs games this season
Just be careful in placing this bet, as the wording can vary by sportsbook. Some require you to bet “Yes” the first points will be scored at or after six minutes have elapsed. As long as you’re paying attention, this is a bet that carries more win equity than the odds suggest!
Chiefs +7 and Over 40.5 Points Scored (-120 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Everything I look at tells me that Super Bowl 58 will be a close game, but if one team does run away with it, it is more likely to be the Chiefs.
Based on that, I could just take the Chiefs getting their 1.5 or 2 points, but that leaves me vulnerable to a narrow 49ers win. Therefore, I am going to tease the result to give myself a margin of error.
You will not find many sportsbooks willing to let you get to Chiefs +7.5 without having to pay a major premium in terms of the odds. The beauty of Same Game Parlays is that you can pretty much pick the combinations you are happy with.
I have gone for Chiefs +7 and over 40.5 points because that is where I feel happiest. However, if you want to go Chiefs +7.5 and put the total somewhere different, that is very possible.
Chiefs +2.5 (-115) and Moneyline (+110)
Bearman: Maybe people learned their lesson by now to not bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Even when counted out, the Chiefs and Mahomes do their thing and are in their fourth Super Bowl over the last five years, something only done by two other franchises in the SB era.
Mahomes is now 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, and he’s getting points again.
I’m not betting against last year’s champs, especially now that they have another weapon — their defense. What Steve Spagnuolo and Kansas City’s defense did to a Baltimore offense that was averaging 34 points per game, was tops in the NFL in rushing, and was led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, who was nothing short of outstanding.
Never before has Mahomes had a defense like this, which also shut down the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills twice this season and held the Philadelphia Eagles to 21 points.
MORE: Super Bowl 58 Predictions
Great comebacks by the Niners vs. the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round and again vs. the Detroit Lions in the Conference Championship got them here. However, if that same San Francisco team we saw in the first half of both playoff games comes out in Las Vegas, the Chiefs will win easily.
I assume they will be ready, so we should have a good game. Four years ago, I predicted a 31-20 Kansas City win over the Niners, and I’m going back to the well with the same score.
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