Don’t Rush To Add Cam Akers, Ezekiel Elliott, Or Tony Pollard

If you’re playing a Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 5, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Rams vs. Cowboys DFS Lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Rams DFS Considerations

Matthew Stafford is coming off his first back-to-back zero-TD games since 2016. Six years ago, he faltered at the hands of two top-five defenses. This year, it was against one top-five defense (the 49ers) and a bottom-10 defense (the Cardinals). He’s now on pace to take 68 sacks, which would obliterate his personal high of 47. He’s also on pace for a career-high 26 interceptions and his lowest yards-per-pass-attempt mark since his 2009 rookie campaign.

Heading into a crucial NFC matchup against Dallas, the Rams must navigate a similarly tough pass defense, albeit a more porous run defense. Assuming LA is no worse than “competitive,” their running game should get back on track. But in DFS, can we trust Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson Jr., knowing that they might cancel each other out?

In the receiving game, it seems to be Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, and then everyone else. Allen Robinson’s DFS price continues to drop, though not as quickly as his stock. Ben Skowronek has outperformed him statistically in three of four games. In other words, if we’re seeking a cheap add-on, Skowronek might be a good fit.

Cowboys DFS Considerations

Michael Gallup returned last week and scored. The big question, now, is whether a Cooper Rush-led passing attack can feed CeeDee Lamb, Gallup, and Dalton Schultz consistently beginning Sunday against the hit-or-miss Rams. We’re either paying quite a bit for Lamb or a modest amount for Gallup or Schultz. Choosing all three seems beyond risky. Selecting even two could realistically culminate in one player (probably whoever is not named “CeeDee”) finishing with fewer than seven points.

The Cowboys backfield constitutes a fascinating collection of a conceivably post-prime star who can still grind out yards on the ground and through the air and a complementary back who’s both explosive and — based on college usage — not necessarily suited for a long-term bell-cow role.

MORE: Dan Quinn Is the Cowboys’ MVP

The RB marriage works because there’s a hot-hand element within a set structure. Some days, Ezekiel Elliott will dominate touches; other days, Pollard will narrow the gap. Either way, it’s tough to rationalize spending big on “good” RBs, which is what I expect they’ll be in LA.

Dallas’ path to victory hinges on a career game from Rush. He looked good in two home wins against the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders. His road victory over the New York Giants was impressive, although it helped that Elliott and Pollard combined for 178 rushing yards — their highest output since Week 5 of last season (a matchup that was also against the Giants). So, just like that time you first listened to “Limelight,” don’t jump on the Rush bandwagon yet.

Recommended DFS Lineup

If Stafford outperforms Lamb, then this lineup will make sense. If not — well, I’ll own up to it if it doesn’t work out. But if we choose the more expensive Lamb, we’ll need to downgrade elsewhere, and I don’t see Lamb as a significantly safer 16+ point option this week.

With that in mind, Kupp ($12,000 normally, $18,000 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. Stafford ($10,000), Higbee ($6,400), and Matt Gay ($3,800) join the all-world receiver in a contest the Rams should win by at least six points.

That leaves exactly $11,800 for Gallup ($6,800) and Schultz ($5,000). We could opt instead for Lamb ($10,800) and Jake Ferguson ($1,000), or if Ferguson remains sidelined, then the cheaper Peyton Hendershot. But I’d rather bet on Gallup and Schultz to earn more touches than last week and combine for 15+ points, than on Lamb and backup TE who realistically might not catch a pass.

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