Week 5 of the NFL season features several matchups of 2023 Super Bowl hopefuls. One such matchup features the Dallas Cowboys and defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams. Can the 3-1 Cowboys continue their run of success with backup Cooper Rush, or will the 2-2 Rams get back on track with a win?
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at Draftkings Sportsbook.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams Top Bets to Target
The Rams are facing an increasing amount of pressure to squeeze more out of veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. For as well as Stafford performed in the playoffs, he’s appeared to be as dialed in as he was during the Rams’ Super Bowl parade through the majority of their four games.
The offense ranks 29th in points scored, 28th in turnovers, 20th in passing yards, and 30th in rushing yards despite having the best starting field position in the league.
One reason I doubted Sean McVay’s ability to win a Super Bowl last year was the offensive line. The unit couldn’t create a running lane to save their life but were solid pass-blockers with Andrew Whitworth leading the way.
But the Rams have slipped to 12th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking win rates. I’d even say that’s generous compared to the eye test.
Stafford has compounded issues by completely ignoring free agent signing Allen Robinson despite opportunities being present on film. Stafford resorts to targeting Cooper Kupp as an instinct, which is understandable but limiting and predictable. The Cowboys must prey on these weaknesses.
Dallas is certainly capable of limiting this offense once again. Their trio of All-Pro contenders, including Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Trevon Diggs, is a phenomenal group of playmakers. We can’t overlook the solid contributions that Donvan Wilson, Anthony Brown, Dante Brown, and Anthony Barr have chipped in.
This unit is really good, and Dan Quinn is making a loud case to be a head coach in 2023. The offense has survived without Dak Prescott, which is all anyone could ask for. Rush is playing well for a backup considering the running game has been mediocre at best for Dallas.
The Rams are struggling with their identity at a crucial part of the season. Their defense is good enough to keep them close in games but not nearly as dominant as last year’s unit. Shocker: losing Von Miller was devastating for their upside.
The NFL betting action on this game has been reflective of the skepticism around the Rams’ ability to play up to a higher level. I just don’t think this team is overly good right now, and the public has agreed.
Our friends at Pikkit have provided the communities’ handle and trends, indicating that 65 percent of bettors are going with the Rams to win, but 63 percent believe the Cowboys cover their 5.5-point line. 70 percent of bettors see the under 43.5 number hitting. You can also sign up for Pikkit and use promo code PFN365 to win up to $100.
I don’t want to agree with the public, but they’re seeing this game correctly. The Rams are squeezing out close wins or losing big. The Cowboys don’t have the firepower or creativity to replicate how Buffalo and San Francisco beat the Rams but they can keep this one to a field goal game.
2u: Rams to win (-200)
1u: Cowboys +5.5 (-110)
1u: Under 43.5 (-110)
Top Player Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. Rams
We’re expecting a low-scoring game, but we certainly want action on what’s most likely and also what could possibly bring us a big return on a low-unit play. Keep in mind that the Rams have the best defense in the NFL against running backs, and the Cowboys rank 11th. But the Rams are second-worst against receivers, while the Cowboys are seventh.
That doesn’t mean to fade Kupp’s props, but it’s more reason to buy into the Cowboys’ props for volume and scoring. Dallas should give CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown, and Michael Gallup more opportunities than Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. This allows them to avoid Bobby Wagner and Aaron Donald as much as possible, and Jalen Ramsey has not fared well this season.
With neither team likely to establish the run effectively, we’re going to conservatively bet on receivers scoring props. Brown has been especially strong in the red zone this season, catching five-of-six targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. I love the return of him getting the first touchdown.
I’m also fading Stafford’s passing yard total. He needed 48 attempts to hit 254 yards against the 49ers’ defense and has hit his Week 5 prop total just once all year. I don’t see the Rams having the same script or a high level of success passing as they did in Week 2 against the Cardinals when he threw for a season-high 272 yards.
