The college football season is coming to a rapid close, and we’re back at it with our college football picks and predictions ahead of the penultimate regular season weekend of action. Standings are continuing to set, and conference pictures are taking shape. Who has the advantage in the race to the College Football Playoffs?
Week 12 College Football Picks and Predictions
Houston vs. ECU (67.5 points)
Two of the American Athletic Conference’s top offensive teams go head to head in a matchup that should absolutely see fireworks from both quarterbacks. Houston QB Clayton Tune crossed the 3,000-yard mark in his last outing and has 31 touchdowns on the season.
It took a bit for the offense to catch up to Tune’s arm talent this season, but he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven straight games and thrown 22 in his past five games alone. That kind of production is certainly buoyed by a seven-touchdown game against SMU in what is now the new record for most points scored in a game, but that is the ultimate point here.
Houston’s defense is abhorrent this season, allowing at least 20 points in every game and at least 30 in three of their last five. They aren’t without talent on the defensive side of the ball, but they have been susceptible to deep passes and have not been able to sustain a pass rush.
ECU QB Holton Ahlers just threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns against the AAC’s top defense in Cincinnati and has 20 touchdowns, 2,912 yards, and is completing 68.4% of his passes this season. The longtime gunslinger for the Pirates passed 13,000 career yards this season and certainly knows how to score.
ECU’s defense is a middle-tier unit in the AAC, but they haven’t faced an offense like this Houston aerial assault. Grab the over, stay for the fireworks.
Prediction
ECU 38, Houston 35
Miami (FL) vs. Clemson (-19)
This line feels very generous toward one side: Clemson. The Miami Hurricanes are reeling, and head coach Mario Cristobal is spending his week discussing his player’s parents taking to social media to criticize their playing time.
With that kind of headache, just two weeks removed from their beatdown at the hands of Florida State, is this Miami team even capable of being competitive against the top teams in the ACC? Despite handling Georgia Tech, the answer really appears to be no.
Clemson still has an outside chance at making the College Football Playoffs, but they’ll need to look ultra-impressive in doing so. That includes dominating the Canes, handling their SEC rival South Carolina, and winning the ACC in convincing fashion against North Carolina. But it all starts with a win against Miami.
The Canes allow nearly six yards per play on defense, the second-worst figure in the conference. That’s news to the Tigers’ ears, as their offense is ranked eighth in the ACC by averaging just under 5.7 yards per play. It’s a great mix of talent matchups, but Clemson has the big-time advantage no matter where you slice it.
There’s motivation for Clemson to win and win big while Miami is reeling.
Prediction
Clemson 38, Miami 17
Georgia (-22.5) vs. Kentucky
Don’t let the rankings fool you. Kentucky was not a top-25 team when they went up against Vanderbilt last week, despite the College Football Playoff committee placing them within the “top 25 teams” in the country.
The Wildcats have fallen off a proverbial cliff, and Will Levis has not been able to elevate the talent around him, nor his own 2023 NFL Draft profile in the making. Enter the Georgia Bulldogs defense that has allowed a national-leading nine touchdowns on defense.
Georgia leads the country in the fewest passing touchdowns (6) and rushing touchdowns (3) allowed this year, as they’ve shown they can limit any offense, no matter their prowess in either facet. For Kentucky, that mix of slumping offense and facing an elite defense is ripe for a dud from the Wildcats.
Levis has thrown just four touchdowns against five interceptions versus ranked teams this season and has thrown just three touchdowns (all vs. Missouri) and four interceptions in his last three outings.
Georgia doesn’t need to make a statement victory as they’re set to coast into the SEC Championship Game against LSU in two weeks, but the strengths of this team simply overpower any strength Kentucky may have. Dawgs over Cats.
Prediction
Georgia 44, Kentucky 10
Texas vs. Kansas (+9)
What is this Texas team? Well, for starters, since Oklahoma, they’re a team that can compete against any Big 12 team. In fact, in all but two of their games against Power Five competition, they’ve been within one score, no matter the result.
However, they’re far from the team that defeated Oklahoma by 49 points and even the team that beat West Virginia by 18.
QB Quinn Ewers has come back down to Earth over his last three outings, throwing just four touchdowns against four interceptions. The magic that was Ewers has been bottled by opposing defensive coordinators, and he’s completed fewer than 50% of his passes in two of his last three games.
The Kansas defense has enough players left, though injury has taken its toll on the Jayhawks, that they can compete at home against the Longhorns. But most importantly, Jason Bean is still playing good enough football to keep Kansas in any game.
Bean is an uber-athletic quarterback with plenty of arm strength, but his legs make him dangerous. A former track sprinter and high school champion, Bean is faster than any Texas defender in front of him. Riding his legs to victory, or at least a win against the spread, is the key.
Texas is a bottom-tier team in terms of run defense in the Big 12. Bean and Kansas RB Devin Neal are the difference-makers here. The Longhorns are on upset watch.
Prediction
Kansas 31, Texas 30
Utah vs. Oregon (+2)
You better believe the Oregon Ducks are ready to rebound and kickstart their home winning streak once again. After falling to UCLA last week — and losing their slim College Football Playoff hopes — the Ducks are poised to return to the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win against Utah.
It’s a strength vs. strength matchup as the Ducks present the conference’s top offense, and the Utes have the Pac-12’s best defense. But putting it all together, one has a distinct advantage.
Oregon’s offensive line is arguably the best in the country. There are a few others in line for the Joe Moore Award this year, but the Ducks aren’t getting the national love they deserve.
The Ducks have allowed just two sacks this season – that’s an average of just 0.2 per game. That is by far the best figure in the country, and the credit is shared across the offense. From offensive line coach Adrian Klemm and offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham to on-field performances from QB Bo Nix and the five (six, even seven) starters up front, it’s a dominant unit.
Oregon’s offensive line is the best at paving the way for their running backs. The Ducks’ offensive line is paving such huge lanes that the Oregon running backs gain at least three yards before contact on 43.3% of their carries. That’s the best figure in the country, 1.3% higher than Oregon State for best in the Power Five.
Utah’s defensive line has been solid, at times, this season but has allowed the conference’s seventh-most yards per rush attempt. That combination of Oregon’s offensive line plowing rushing lanes and Utah’s defenders showing their inability to penetrate could put the Utes in for a long day.
Prediction
Oregon 31, Utah 27
