As the dust settles from the NFL Draft it’s time to turn our attention away from draft grades and to future odds, specifically Rookie of the Year odds in the NFL.
Now that we know where all of the rookies ultimately ended up we can identify not only who is the best player in the class, but also who has the best opportunity to succeed in their first year in the NFL.
We’re not just looking on the offensive side of the ball at guys like Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, we’re looking at defenders. Maybe, Devon Witherspoon can be the next Sauce Gardner and win the Defensive Rookie of the Year, or Will Anderson Jr. will become the next Nick Bosa.
Let’s first take a look at the odds for OROY and DROY and then get into who to bet to win the award right now, four months from the start of the season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction and pick
This Offensive rookie of the Year thing it’s really not that difficult. If a quarterback plays a majority of the games and puts up some level of counting stats, then he wins the award. We’ve had wide receivers the past two years mostly because Trevor Lawrence had Urban Meyer as a head coach his rookie year and Kenny Pickett was the only first-round quarterback and only threw seven touchdowns in 13 games.
However, it was Justin Herbert in 2020 and Kyler Murray the year before that.
There are enough quarterbacks in this draft that are coming into stable situations where they’re expected to play.
Bryce Young will almost certainly start for Frank Reich in Carolina, CJ Stroud doesn’t have much competition in Houston, and Jim Irsay already said that Anthony Richardson is going to play over Gardner Minshew in Indianapolis.
The third guy on that list and the third QB taken is the one to bet on right now. Richardson was seen as a developmental guy in the draft process, so people aren’t expecting him to start right out of the gates, but once Jim Irsay lays eyes on this guy at practice he’ll do anything to get him on the field.
The same way he demanded that the Colts trade Carson Wentz and how he benched Matt Ryan from the owners box this past season.
Richardson is going to play and because of his athleticism, he’s going to play well. He doesn’t have to be a refined passer to rush for 800 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’ll give the Colts a very high floor as an offense and make Richardson one of the favorites.
Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction and pick
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s kind of all over the place. You want to take somebody who was drafted high because that gives name recognition which is important for the Rookie of the Year award, and you also want somebody who can make big plays.
Will Anderson Jr. could fit that role, but he’s the main pass rush option in Houston and will command constant double teams.
Devon Witherspoon might be that guy, but he’s more adept as a tackler than somebody who can grab four or five interceptions and garner enough hype for the award.
The guy who I like with longer odds right now is Emmanuel Forbes, the cornerback out of Mississippi State that went 16th overall to the Washington Commanders.
Forbes is paper thin at 160 pounds, but he’s a true ball hawk with 14 career interceptions in three years and he returned an NCAA record six of them for touchdowns. A couple of pick sixes might be enough to get DROY votes, so he’s my pick and I think this is the best number you’ll be able to get him at.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
