If you’re looking for Week 10 XFL odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed all four contests’ highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Battlehawks vs. Guardians Week 10 Odds, Picks, and Predictions
St. Louis could have clinched the final North Division playoff spot with a win last week. Instead, by falling to Seattle, those two teams are now tied with one game remaining. If they remain tied after this week, then one of several tiebreakers will take place.
If they both lose or tie, then since they split their head-to-head matchups (tiebreaker No. 1), St. Louis would advance because of a better intra-divisional winning percentage (tiebreaker No. 2).
However, if both teams win this weekend, then they’d be even not only in the first two tiebreakers but also in No. 3: combined record of opponents in wins.
That would take us to tiebreaker No. 4: best combined ranking among division teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Wow, that’s a mouthful. But it’s also clearly laid out if we simply run the numbers. Seattle’s No. 2 in division points scored and No. 1 in division points allowed. St. Louis is No. 3 and No. 2, respectively.
Advantage Seattle? Not so fast. St. Louis is finished playing in their division. Seattle has yielded only six fewer points in the division than St. Louis has. That means if they give up seven points to Vegas, then Seattle would jump in front on the points-allowed ranking.
MORE: FREE Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
Ah, but if Seattle scores 55 points, they’ll leapfrog DC in the points-scored ranking. Sounds crazy? Not entirely, especially if you’ve been watching this team all year.
Whew. And there are four other tiebreakers if No. 4 doesn’t yield a winner. But let’s not get too far in the weeds. OK, maybe just a little.
The key takeaway is that the Battlehawks play first. They need to take care of business, and in the event they tie Seattle in the first four tiebreakers, points across all games will come into play for tiebreaker No. 5. That’s why I’m betting on the Battlehawks to be aggressive and score as much as possible as if their season depends on it.
And unfortunately for the 1-8 Guardians, it’ll be tough to slow them down.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Battlehawks (-9)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Battlehawks (-380)
- Over/Under: Over 48 Points (-110)
Brahmas vs. Defenders Picks and Predictions
DC has nothing more to play for, while the Brahmas need a win. Why?
For starters, the Defenders have clinched an opening-round home game in the playoffs. I’d be shocked if they trot out their core starters in this one. This is the most dominant team in the league. But an injury to Jordan Ta’amu or Abram Smith would set them back dramatically.
And San Antonio somehow has hung on in the South Division, despite their 3-6 record. If they prevail against what I expect will be a litany of DC reserves, and if Arlington falls to the somewhat mighty Roughnecks, then the Brahmas would eke into the postseason, thanks to tiebreaker No. 3 (combined record of opponents in wins).
San Antonio’s strong defense and improved running game (led by the ascending Jacques Patrick) should keep them no worse than “competitive.” Beyond that, it comes down to how much the Defenders push back vs. simply getting through the game and preparing for next week.
I’m going with the team that needs the win.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Brahmas (+3)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Brahmas (+130)
- Over/Under: Under 42 (-110)
Renegades vs. Roughnecks Picks and Predictions
Now that we know the stakes this weekend, let’s run through the final two matchups.
Do football teams play three-dimensional chess? Specifically, does Houston — which, like DC, has clinched a home playoff game — prefer to play against Arlington or San Antonio in the postseason? And if they do have a preference, will they act on it?
It might be moot. The Brahmas play the day before. If they lose, then Arlington’s headed for the playoffs, the odds will shift modestly or perhaps significantly, and none of what I’m about to write will matter.
MORE: XFL TV Schedule
But if the Brahmas win, then Houston controls Arlington’s destiny. If the Roughnecks opt to rest many of their starters, advantage Renegades. And frankly, the Renegades might just be the tougher opponent for a Houston squad that started 4-0 and then was exposed by the top teams in the North Division.
The betting lines right now assume this game will be a toss-up. And candidly, I can’t imagine Houston playing their starters in a meaningless game, even if they do prefer facing off against the Brahmas in the playoffs.
So I’m going all-in on the must-win (for now) Renegades.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Renegades (-1)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Renegades (-115)
- Over/Under: Under 41.5 (-110)
Sea Dragons vs. Vipers Picks and Predictions
As I’ve written a dozen times or more since before Week 1, my two preseason picks to win the XFL title have been St. Louis and Seattle. Admittedly, I didn’t think DC had enough aerial power to keep pace with what I believed in February were the league’s two best passing attacks.
Credit the Defenders for overpowering team after team after team.
MORE: 2023 XFL Standings
But also credit Seattle for persevering and beating the Battlehawks on the road last weekend. It was a remarkable, gutty victory, and it’s given them 50/50 odds or better to reach the playoffs.
I don’t see how Vegas keeps pace, even as Seattle’s backfield remains an injury-riddled question mark. The Sea Dragons don’t need a strong running game to (figuratively) run over the Vipers. They simply need to play as well as we’ve seen them most of this year.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Sea Dragons (-8.5)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Sea Dragons (-380)
- Over/Under: Under 47 (-110)
