We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
Top Commanders vs. Packers Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Terry McLaurin Prop Bets
It’s Taylor Heinicke versus the Packers’ elite pass defense. What could go wrong?
That’s no knock on Heinicke; Carson Wentz would be facing the same challenges. And in fairness, Green Bay’s opposing QBs have included Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and Bailey Zappe in his first NFL start. Tom Brady did well enough despite not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.
But when analyzing Terry McLaurin’s prop bets, we have to consider what he’s up against. Heinicke marks a QB downgrade. If Jaire Alexander shadows him, McLaurin’s ceiling falls further. Then there’s Jahan Dotson, who’s on track to return since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4.
It all adds up to more risk than I’d suggest taking on. McLaurin remains a talented WR, but the headwinds are too strong to be bullish in Week 7.
Receptions under 3.5 (+130) — DraftKings
Receiving yards under 50.5 (-115) — DraftKings
Brian Robinson Prop Bets
The Commanders’ most realistic path to victory consists of (a) slowing Green Bay’s running game, (b) slowing Green Bay’s passing game, and (c) establishing the run. With Brian Robinson entering his third of many NFL games to come, he’s arguably Washington’s best running back.
I made this case back in mid-August after watching him during preseason. The fact is, Antonio Gibson never profiled as a bell cow but was thrust into the role as a rookie in 2020 because Washington had no better options. Gibson’s gradual decline should not have been surprising; he’s better suited for a complementary and/or “gadget” role consisting of 8-10 touches per game.
With J.D. McKissic largely on the outside looking in, Robinson is “the guy” in this backfield. He earned 17 carries last week in a close contest. Even if the Packers jump out to an early lead in this one, 13+ seems realistic. While Robinson might not rack up enough yards to keep drives going, he should earn enough attempts to put him above one prop threshold.
Rushing attempts over 12.5 (-120) — DraftKings
Rushing yards under 52.5 (-145) — DraftKings
Aaron Jones Player Props
I was wrong about Aaron Jones last week. I shared with readers that he’d likely have a blowup performance. The kind of performance that makes us proud to be human, rather than a turnip.
I did not anticipate that he’d take a backseat to AJ Dillon, getting out-touched 14-12 in a losing effort. Jones is averaging twice as many yards after contact (2.8) as Dillon is (1.4). The Packers are 3-3 and close to earning a “dysfunctional” label if they don’t turn things around. I expect them to feature their No. 1 playmaker, and despite the tough matchup, he’ll return to Pro Bowl form.
Rushing yards over 54.5 (-115) — DraftKings
Receiving yards over 21.5 (-115) — DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers Player Props
It’s funny how player props work. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 23.3 completions and 234 passing yards per game. Below you can see his over/unders are nearly identical. This is a sign that the market doesn’t have any more intel than you have. For betting purposes, that’s a good thing, because we now have an opening to get a little smarter than the market.
Among the six defenses Green Bay has played this year, none have yielded more QB fantasy points per game than the Commanders. In fact, five of the Packers’ six opponents have been top 16 in this category.
Passing yards over 234.5 (-115) — DraftKings
Passing completions over 22.5 (EVEN) — DraftKings
Passing TDs over 1.5 (-125) — DraftKings