We break down the slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 5 will be, and if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 5: Fantasy Managers Get a Welcome Reprieve
Note that all times are Eastern Time. The NFL Week 5 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 5 is based on reporting from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14), O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
If I am being honest, I didn’t need to dangle this game out. But given the overall low threat of adverse weather impacting the NFL and fantasy football slate, it felt worth it.
The only reason we are looking at Orchard Park is because wind can pop up this time of year. While temps in the 60s with sunny skies make for a perfect fall day to pummel a few tables, there is an increased risk of 16 to 20-mph winds. I wouldn’t let this be the deciding factor in any fantasy start/sit decisions in Week 5. It’s actually a relatively straightforward matchup.
Start players wearing blue. Bench players wearing white. See, I told you this was going to be easy. I get it if you don’t have a choice but to start Najee Harris or Diontae Johnson, but we need to significantly manage expectations.
In fairness, the Steelers offense is doing that for us. Both Harris and Johnson fall just outside the top 24 at their respective positions in our Week 5 PPR fantasy rankings.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 5 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the Week 5 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET (London)
Putting the weight of the passing offense on the shoulders of unproven players will always take a few weeks to figure out. When you are asking rookies to step up, it takes even longer. Yet after a strong preseason and a few tune-up games, we are watching the maturation of Packers WR Romeo Doubs happen before our eyes.
Over the last two weeks, Doubs has earned a full-time role, posting a 22.8% target share while earning a 94.5% route-per-dropback rate. He leads the team with five red-zone targets, is 12th in yards after the catch/reception, and will face Giants DB Fabian Moreau for roughly 80% of his routes.
On the Pat McAfee Show, Aaron Rodgers noted Doubs’ development, talking about a subtle gesture he made at the line that Doubs caught onto and adjusted his route with no needed communication. That’s huge, as it’s been missing since the trade of Davante Adams. Doubs is a mid-WR3 in Week 5 as the NFL heads to London for the second week in a row.
As for the Week 5 weather forecast in London, expect clear skies and 60-degree temperatures with light and variable winds.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns, O/U 47.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
With Keenan Allen ruled out again as hamstring injuries become a more significant concern for the veteran, it’s up to Mike Williams to shoulder the load again for the Chargers. Williams is the WR20 with Allen out, recording 21.8% of the target share and nearly 43% of the air yards. But that feels almost disappointing, as many would consider Williams a high-end WR2 at worst with Allen out.
Likely to face a ton of zone coverage this week, Williams needs to find a way to make it work, something that’s been a struggle in 2022 (0.63 YPRR vs. Zone, 3.92 YPRR vs. Man). On a positive note, Williams was 20th in YPRR and eighth in passer rating when targeted vs. zone last year, suggesting this “down” start might not last much longer.
Cleveland’s Week 5 weather forecast should feature 63-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and ten mph winds that could gust to 15 mph.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
This game will have zero postseason implications. But I don’t care. It’s one of my favorite games to dissect, mostly from the Jaguars’ point of view. James Robinson is a smash play in Week 5. He’s coming off a down game, totaling 29 yards. That is more to do with the Eagles than anything else.
Houston, on the other hand, has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs (32.78) and rushing yards (564), the second-most rushing touchdowns (five), and the eighth-most receiving yards (157) to RBs.
This also feels like a potential breakout spot for Travis Etienne, who has averaged 12 touches and 53.3 total yards in the last three games. There have been ample missing opportunities that, at some point, will begin to be converted. For the other skill players, Trevor Lawrence is a not-so-sneaky high-end QB2, with Christian Kirk a must-start top-15 receiver.
Expect 83-degree temperatures, nine mph winds, and mostly sunny skies in Jacksonville for Week 5.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The Lions are a fantasy manager’s dream. They are an offense with plenty of talent and a defense that leaks like a sieve and forces them to keep the accelerator pinned from whistle to whistle. How else can you explain Jared Goff sitting as the QB5 in fantasy through four weeks?
With D’Andre Swift out again, firing Jamaal Williams back into your starting lineup is a great spot. While his snap rate went up just five percent (45 to 50%), he crushed it with an RB5 finish (23.9 PPR) in Week 4. Over the last two weeks, Williams has averaged 21 touches and 108 as the RB3 in fantasy.
Speaking of leaking like a sieve, New England can’t stop running backs. They’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, are bottom 20 in receiving yards allowed, and are 25th in DVOA vs. RBs with the second-highest success rate against them.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 5 in Foxborough, we should expect highs around 65 with eight mph winds and clear skies.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets, O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Both teams, for drastically different reasons, have undergone a QB change. For Miami, it’s the impact of Tua Tagovailoa and his health. For the Jets, it’s getting their (hopeful) franchise QB, Zach Wilson, back after an injury that delayed his season’s start.
While Miami is down some upside, New York is 29th in pass defense DVOA and EPA/dropback. They rush at the fourth-lowest rate as well, which should aid Teddy Bridgewater and keep the pocket somewhat clean. You still have to favor Tyreek Hill (WR6) and Jaylen Waddle (WR15) in a great matchup.
As for the Jets, while the pace remained similar to what we saw with Joe Flacco under center (24.3s/snap), they transitioned to a much more running-focused approach. While still leading the league at over 70% of their plays being a pass, they were 12th in neutral rushing last week.
Flacco averaged 51.2 attempts/per game. Wilson tossed the ball just 36 times. With significantly few targets to go around, the pecking order will be much more important to monitor this week.
At least the Week 5 weather report will be pleasant in East Rutherford, with temps around 63 with five mph winds and gusts that could gust up to 15 mph.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10), O/U 46.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
“What is your prediction for the fight? My prediction? Yes, your prediction. Pain!”
Sure, Clubber Lang was referencing his upcoming bout against Rocky Balboa, but he was also talking about what Tom Brady is about to do to this poor Atlanta Falcons defense. He is going scorched Earth on the Falcons in a way that will make Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore proud.
He looks to have a full complement of options at his disposal with Chris Godwin in the lineup along with Julio Jones, but I doubt he’ll need more than Mike Evans to make his point.
As for the Week 5 weather forecast, we should see sunny skies over Tampa, with highs near 88 and seven mph winds.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Washington Commanders, O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Wait, Derrick Henry is seeing targets? Gulp, oh dear. That’s a massive deal.
Not only can he drop over 100-yards in any game, just like he did against the Colts last week (114), but over the last two weeks, Henry has averaged 5.5 targets (25% target share), four receptions, and 45.5 receiving yards.
Henry has averaged 21 touches and 99.3 total yards per game, and while this is another somewhat troublesome matchup for most, Henry is a matchup-proof RB1.
If Brian Robinson is indeed active, I don’t care if he sees a snap; he is the winner of the week even to be out there. It will make for some interesting discussions in the coming weeks as we try to figure out this Commander’s backfield and who the real RB1 is. Week 5 also feels like a get-right opportunity for Terry McLaurin against a Titans defense that ranks dead last in DVOA at defending the deep ball.
Washington’s Week 5 weather forecast should feature sunny skies, 63-degree temperatures, and five mph winds.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 39.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
I hate it here. Honestly, I would rather watch the Broncos and Colts again compared to what is happening to DJ Moore in the Panthers’ offense.
Nothing matters when only 51% of your targets are catchable. Moore has a 25.9% target share, but it doesn’t matter. He’s open all the time but still got called out by his team for needing to play better.
I’m sorry, what? The last person in this offense who should feel any blame is Moore. Somehow, after three straight years of 1,250+ scrimmage yards (only WR with this streak) with passes from Kyle Allen, Cam Newton, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold, it’s Baker Mayfield who finally breaks him. I’m sorry DJ, you deserve better than to be WR59 in PPR/game (9.0).
George Kittle also deserves better, but he is too damn good as a blocker. The loss of Trent Williams has all but solidified Kittle’s role as a blocker first and receiver second. Carolina is 26th in DVOA against tight ends, second-highest catch rate, and seventh-most receiving touchdowns despite facing the fourth-fewest targets.
You’d think Kittle would destroy here, but he’s averaged just 4.5 targets since his return. You still play him if you have him, but Kyle Shanahan is wasting Kittle.
Expect 67-degree temperatures, six mph winds, and mostly sunny skies in Charlotte for Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), O/U 47.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Sunday Night Football gives up a great AFC North matchup as the Bengals take on the Ravens. It is also the game featured in our Underdog Pick’em article, where I laid out several of my favorite plays, including Lamar Jackson’s rushing projection being far too low at first glance.
With Rashod Bateman (foot) ruled out, expect a ton of targets to go Mark Andrews’ way, plus for Devin Duvernay to be an intriguing option for fantasy. While he only has 13 targets (12%), Duvernay has three touchdown receptions and sits as the WR27 and inside the top-36 in points per game (13.3 PPR).
As for the weather forecast report in Week 5 in Baltimore, look for temperatures around 60 with calm winds and clear skies.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5), O/U 51.5 | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
I know the Fourth of July was a few months ago, but we will see fireworks on Monday Night Football. Both teams sit inside the top ten in neutral script passing rates and pace of play.
While KC is 16th in EPA/dropback, Las Vegas is 24th. The loss of Charvarius Ward is also being felt by KC, ranking 29th in DVOA vs. primary receivers and 24th in fantasy points per game (34.73). Davante Adams is about to go nuclear.
This also feels like a much-needed opportunity for JuJu Smith-Schuster. Signed to be the No. 1 option at receiver, Smith-Schuster’s averaging 6.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 56 yards a game. He has yet to score over 14 PPR in a game, with two games in the single digits.
There’s no reason a WR who has seen eight targets in three of four games from Patrick Mahomes having just 19 receptions and 224 yards on the season with an 8.5 aDOT. He’s a low-end WR3 but has a chance to erupt.
Expect 70-degree temperatures, three mph winds, and partly cloudy skies in Kansas City for Week 5.
Indoor games
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET - Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET - Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 48.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET - Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
O/U 42.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
