Next week, we have the highly anticipated NFC Championship rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Although Philly has the best record in football at 10-1 and has won two consecutive games down double digits to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, many people believe that San Francisco is the better team here, and that’s reflected in the 49ers vs. Eagles odds.
49ers vs. Eagles Odds
After they were originally short favorites when the 49ers vs. Eagles odds were originally posted prior to Sunday, Philly is now a home underdog, with them getting as many as three points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
49ers -148, Eagles +124
Even if the Eagles haven’t necessarily played like a 10-1 team, it’s still surprising to see them as a home underdog. According to John Ewing at BetMGM, there have been just three 10-1 teams or better to be home underdogs, and two of those teams were starting backup quarterbacks in meaningless Week 17 games.
If you take away those two games, the last team with a 10-1 record or better to be getting points at home was the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2004 AFC Championship against the New England Patriots. If you remember, that was a rookie Ben Roethlisberger going against a Tom Brady/Bill Belichick-led team aiming for their third Super Bowl win in four years.
Why Are the 49ers Favored?
The 49ers might have two more losses than the Eagles, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a worse team. San Francisco had a three-game losing streak in the middle of the season when they had injuries on offense to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams.
In games when their offense is completely healthy, they’re 8-0 with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points. Only one of those eight wins was a one-score victory, and that was because the Rams kicked a meaningless field goal down 10 points as time expired. While the 49ers have dominated their opponents this season, the Eagles have a +64 point differential, which is not only just the seventh-best in the NFL, but the second-lowest for a 10-1 team in the Super Bowl era.
“The Eagles have not been as dominant as their record, with 8 of their 11 games being decided by one score.” Said Ethan Useloff, football trader at PointsBet in a company newsletter. “The includes four double-digit comebacks, including in each of the past two weeks against the Chiefs and Bills.”
“On the flip side, the 49ers have just one win by a single possession and have outscored opponents 92-30 in their last three games. While Philadelphia has shown plenty of resolve by winning all of these close contests, San Francisco has looked like the more convincing Super Bowl contender and the stronger overall team.”
Overall, the oddsmakers don’t overly value win-loss records when setting these lines. The Eagles are a very good team and rightfully a Super Bowl contender, but no team has played better football this season than the 49ers when they’re at full strength, which they are at the moment.
As we get more injury updates on OT Lane Johnson and TE Dallas Goedert for the Eagles, it will be worth monitoring how the point spread is impacted, but expect the 49ers to close as road favorites.
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