What To Do With Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, And Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

If you’re playing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs DFS lineup for Sunday Night Football in Week 4, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs DFS lineup considerations

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Buccaneers DFS considerations

Strange that one of these teams will fall to 2-2 tonight (or both will be 2-1-1, but let’s not think about that). Tampa Bay’s troublesome WR injuries and offensive line have brought them to this pivotal juncture against a tough opponent. The offensive line can’t be easily fixed. The receiving corps can.

Last weekend, 36 of Tom Brady’s 42 throws (86%) went to Russell Gage, Cameron Brate, Breshad Perriman, Kyle Rudolph, Jaelon Darden, Cole Beasley, and Scotty Miller. Tonight, we might assume no more than 25% of his throws will go to this group.

That’s not to say Gage will be cast aside; he’s still a top-four receiving option. But Brady can still be “Brady” when surrounded by two or three future Hall-of-Famers. He has a terrific DFS upside against a beatable Chiefs secondary.

Selecting the right WR or WRs hinges on who’s healthy and how healthy they are. Chris Godwin is working his way back. But it could take him a week to get into game shape.

Or maybe that’s errant thinking. He’s the X-factor in this selection process. If we go big with him, we’re hoping for 18+ fantasy points. That might be a lot to expect if he’s eased back in.

Also, should we invest in Leonard Fournette, who’s been merely “good” through three games while averaging a sub-par 1.6 yards after contact? The opposing Chiefs are yielding only 3.6 yards per carry. We’d need to talk ourselves into paying big money for the Bucs’ starting RB.

Chiefs DFS considerations

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are headed toward an interesting crossroads if they lose this one, as it would significantly open up the AFC West. Patrick Mahomes and his backfield struggled against Indy. Tampa Bay’s defense won’t be any easier.

With six DFS slots, a big question concerns how many Chiefs we should choose. Two or three seems like the sweet spot, and we’ll need at least one big Tampa Bay or K.C. bargain to fit four big playmakers in this slate.

Since I expect Tampa Bay to take this one, it could mean going Isiah Pacheco in negative-game-script mop-up work. Or Skyy Moore, and hope for three targets.

One player we might sharply avoid is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Yes, he’s the overall RB4 while averaging 5.3 yards per carry and catching all 12 of his targets. One couldn’t have scripted a better opening to his season.

And yet, the opposing Bucs have yielded the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Edwards-Helaire will come at a steep cost. He’ll need to keep producing at an uber-high level to meet DFS expectations.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs top DFS lineup

Tampa Bay gave up the fifth-fewest rushing TDs last year. This year, they’re one of only three teams that haven’t allowed a rushing score. With the expectation that their defense will force Mahomes to throw, I’m banking on 8+ points for a unit averaging 15 DFS points per game against Dallas, New Orleans, and Green Bay. In other words, I believe they can handle any offense at home, including the Chiefs’. That’s why I’m putting them ($3,200 normally, $4,800 as Captain) in our Captain slot.

This move frees us to invest big-time (or “bigly” as kids these days like to say, until I start saying it, and then they’ll stop). Brady ($10,000), a returning Mike Evans ($9,400), and Fournette ($10,400) form a potential 50+ point nucleus with 70-point (yes, 70-point) upside. Much depends on other Bucs receivers’ health, how effectively Kansas City’s stout run D (3.6 yards per carry) operates, and whether Fournette remains active in the passing game and near the goal line.

That leaves $15,400 for two slots. We’ll fill one with Mahomes ($11,400), who realistically might not exceed 17 points. But frankly, I’m not sure any Chief will surpass 17 points on Sunday. Mahomes at least offers the highest ceiling.

We’ll invest our final $4,000 on Ryan Succop. In a game script that should favor Tampa Bay, I’m envisioning at least two field goals or 10+ points. This should give us a great shot at a 50/50 win and a decent shot at doubling our money (or better) in tournaments.

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