The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Having been finally handed over the keys to the car, can Lance live up to expectations, and where should he come off the boards in upcoming fantasy drafts?
Trey Lance ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Lance currently has an ADP of 101, coming off the board as the QB13. In Superflex formats, Lance is a mid-second round pick due to positional scarcity. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Lance is currently the QB12 with an ADP of 97.
It was only a matter of time before Lance was named the starter. After all, the 49ers sold the farm to acquire him. I’m all-in on Lance. I have been since his time at North Dakota State. Even leading up to the draft, I said he had the highest ceiling of any QB in the class, and that still holds true today. Lance needed time and patience, and the team now feels comfortable enough with him as their Week 1 starter despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s success.
In fantasy, you want a dual-threat QB, generally referred to as the “Konami Code” for their rushing upside. Few are as dynamic of a rusher as Lance, but he is not a run-first QB. He has a howitzer for a right arm and is in one of the most creative offenses in the NFL.
Lance is set up to thrive and have a season similar to what Jalen Hurts did last year. If waiting on the position, Lance is my pick in the later rounds, and he has more upside than any QB. While the floor might be shaky for a few weeks, he is more than worth the pick.
Trey Lance’s projected fantasy value in 2022
It’s reasonable to say that a bet on Lance requires a bit of a leap of faith. We haven’t seen him on the field much. But what we did in the limited time was exciting. Last season, Lance only started two games but averaged 22.4 PPR points and 60 rushing yards a game in those contests. Those are QB1 numbers.
In Week 5 against the undefeated Cardinals, Lance threw for 192 yards (15 of 29) and rushed for 89 on his way to a QB20 finish. In Week 17, he racked up 249 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while adding 31 yards on the ground, finishing as the QB10 on the week. He also played about half the game in relief of Garoppolo in Week 4, finishing as the QB13 with 41 rushing yards on seven attempts.
Both starts also had a similar trend of Lance starting slow but then warming up in the second half, something very common for guys who aren’t getting a ton of reps or are pretty green still. Lance was both. I could see 2022 taking a similar path, where Lance struggles a bit in the opening weeks but then finds his groove and takes off.
There is too much talent for Lance not to succeed. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best play-callers in the NFL, Elijah Mitchell is a solid rusher, and the pass catchers rival any team with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Danny Gray. So long as the offensive line gives Lance a chance to explore his options, QB10 feels like his floor.