The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. As he continues his recovery from a season-ending injury, where should Godwin go in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
Chris Godwin ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Godwin currently has an ADP of 59, coming off the board as the WR22. For comparison, Mike Evans (WR9) is going around 33 picks sooner (ADP 26). In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Godwin is currently the WR29 with an ADP of 70, showing a slightly more conservative outlook.
Guys going early in drafts that are coming off season-ending injuries, especially ACLs, are always a tough call for fantasy. When will they be back? What will his snap count be, and what usage? Will their effectiveness return, or is it likely to be a down year? All of that comes into play.
Godwin does seem to be on track as the Buccaneers elected not to place him on the PUP list, meaning they expect him to play before Week 4. The fact he was cleared for camp suggests he is ready for Week 1 as well. The average nine-month recovery for a torn ACL places Godwin right in late September since he tore his ACL in late December.
If Godwin’s ADPs kept sliding, I would be in, but there is a concern he is being overdrafted at the moment. I totally understand wanting to buy into the Buccaneers’ passing offense, as Godwin might be leading the team in per-game targets by midseason. However, there is just as likely of a chance he struggles, and the Bucs rely on Mike Evans, Russell Gage, and Julio Jones to get them to the playoffs, where they really need Godwin.
Chris Godwin’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The WR15 in 2021, Godwin was the No. 7 WR in points per game at 17.3 PPR. Thanks to a 21.21% target share on the NFL’s fastest (26.5 seconds per snap) and pass-happiest offense (67% pass rate), Godwin set career highs with 98 receptions on 127 targets for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns. Not bad for someone splitting targets with three Hall of Fame-caliber players in Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown.
But it is also what we have come to expect from Godwin since his breakout in 2018. Over the last three years, Godwin has averaged 17.8 PPR/game, producing WR2 or better weeks in 58% of his contests, with 30% inside the top-12 (40 active games).
Just with Brady alone, Godwin averages 8.1 targets, 6.2 receptions, 72.2 yards, and 0.48 TDs. That’s 16.6 PPR/game and a pace of a 138-105-1,228-8 receiving line, which every single fantasy manager would gladly take on their roster. There is every reason to believe we will see this at some point this year; I just don’t know when.
However, Godwin did not participate in any contact this preseason, not even in 7-on-7s or 11-on-11s during camp. Head coach Todd Bowles was optimistic about Godwin, but that is almost expected.
“He’s been working out every day. He’s one of the hardest workers on the team. It’s going to be hard to try to hold him back if he’s healthy.” Bowles told The Athletic’s Greg Auman.
As an integral part of this team, Godwin is someone who, when healthy, would be a locked-in WR2 for fantasy. However, he is anything but healthy yet still requires the same WR2 cost. There are enough high-upside receivers in his same tier that I prefer, making it harder for me to take the plunge on Godwin for 2022.