The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Despite the ongoing off-the-field situation, where would Kamara be selected in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
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Alvin Kamara ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to prime draft season for fantasy football, Kamara currently has an ADP of 13, coming off the board as the RB9. For comparison, Mark Ingram (RB50) is going around 159 picks later than Kamara (ADP 172).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Kamara is currently the RB8 with an ADP of 12. While they are a consensus, I have Kamara as my RB7 and ranked 11th overall. However, be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
The only reason Kamara’s ADP was suppressed, especially over the summer, was the concern of a possible suspension handed down by the league. Following two postponements, that feels very unlikely to occur during the 2022 season and is expected to be resolved after the season ends.
That means fantasy managers should view and evaluate Kamara just as they usually would. He is a high-octane running back with the best contact balance we’ve seen in a long time. A constant weapon in the passing game, Kamara is everything you look for in a rusher. Once going in the third round, Kamara shouldn’t be escaping the first round, given the pedigree and consistency he brings.
Alvin Kamara’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Last season, we saw a new version of Kamara. One that was not as heavily used in the air but on the ground. Without Drew Brees under center and Jameis Winston suffering a torn ACL midseason, Kamara set a new career-high rushing average at 17.5 attempts per game (12 games). His targets took a hit in the process, dropping from 7.1 in 2020 to 5.4 in 2021.
In 13 games, Kamara rushed 240 times for 898 yards (3.7 ypc) with four touchdowns. As noted, his targets did drop. Nevertheless, he was still No. 6 among running backs with 67 targets. Of those 67 targets, Kamara hauled in 47 passes (T-9th) for 439 yards and five touchdowns. That goes to show how much room he had to the rest of the field.
Was this a regression? Yes. In 2020, Kamara combined for 21 TDs (16 rushing) and scored 377.8 PPR points as the RB1 (25.2 PPR/game). But given the offense and missing four games, it’s hard to be overly disappointed with his RB8 showing and 18.1 PPR/game (RB4).
I would note there was an impact on Kamara last year when New Orleans brought back Mark Ingram. In their four games together, Kamara dropped to 14.25 att/game as they knew they could trust Ingram to carry the load when needed. But he also averaged 5.75 targets, keeping in the 20-opportunity ballpark, which is clear RB1 numbers.
Both players will be fantasy relevant but in different ranges. Kamara is an RB1, and you could make a case as a top-six pick, whereas Ingram is an RB4 with higher-than-normal touchdown upside. Ingram would be a top-24 RB if Kamara misses time, making him a near must-draft for anyone taking Kamara in the first round.