Franchise quarterbacks are gold in the NFL. Without one, you’re swimming upstream to win at a high level. It’s rare that these type of players become available, but with Justin Fields potentially on the market due to the Chicago Bears owning the top overall pick, we could see a team elevate from pretender to contender in short order.
In an effort to determine which teams are most in need of help at the quarterback position, I took the sum of team rankings in a handful of stats from 2023. Let’s take a look at the betting favorites when it comes to landing Fields, their standing in the “Soppe Need Metric,” and Fields’ fit should he take his talents to that specific city.
Potential Landing Spots for Justin Fields
Chicago Bears (+100)
Returning to the team that drafted him 11th overall in 2021 is the betting favorite, which makes sense. The Bears spent up to give Fields a true WR1 in DJ Moore, and the veteran receiver paid off their faith in him with a career year (96 receptions, 1,364 yards, and eight touchdowns).
The idea of holding Fields means that Chicago is likely to move the No. 1 pick, something that would land them plenty of ammo to build a winner around their 24-year-old signal-caller.
From Weeks 9-18, the Bears went 5-4 with each of those losses by a single possession. Chicago may not be too far away from fielding a playoff team, and making a change at the most important position in the game is a risky idea unless they have intel that they can get a king’s ransom (or if they have that high of a grade on Caleb Williams).
Atlanta Falcons (+140)
The Falcons have spent the past three seasons building up their offensive firepower, and this might be their chance to land a trigger man who can maximize the raw talent they have on their roster.
A change to the offensive play-calling only makes this scenario more likely. The roster construction lines up nicely for adding a player like Fields, and so does the state of the NFC South (divisional point differential in 2023: -134 points).
MORE: Falcons’ Fantasy Impact Following Zac Robinson Hire
Adding Fields could put Atlanta atop this division for years to come. But is the new coaching staff comfortable enough in the depth of this roster to sacrifice the assets that it’ll require to make this gamble?
Las Vegas Raiders (+450)
Do I like the idea of Fields being given a pair of supersized playmakers like Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers? Of course, I do! That would be the best way to help develop him as a passer in a hurry.
However, this feels like a longer shot than the odds board suggests. Not only do the Raiders have Aidan O’Connell (2023 fourth-round pick) entering Year 2 after a reasonably strong finish to his rookie season, but they also have to be realistic about their window.
Las Vegas’ path to success in the AFC West is likely more than a quarterback away, making them, in my opinion, more likely to build their roster depth before investing at the position. Fantasy managers want this trade to happen — it’s not one that I’m betting on.
Seattle Seahawks (+750)
Geno Smith is coming off of a season of regression, but with him cashing eight-figure checks for each of the next two seasons, bringing in Fields seems like a long shot.
That said, this is a ready-made offense for a gamebreaker like Fields. And with a defensive mind in Mike Macdonald taking over for Pete Carroll, could Seattle look to load up on firepower and hope that talent wins out?
The San Francisco 49ers aren’t going anywhere, but the NFC as a whole has room for some middling teams to elevate. The ‘Hawks could be an upgrade at under center away from taking advantage.
Denver Broncos (+1600)
The Broncos are in need of a quarterback and have some interesting pieces on the offensive side of things. But like the Raiders, Fields is not enough to greatly impact their standing in the AFC West.
Fields is about the furthest thing from Drew Brees, so I’m not tempted to think that Sean Payton is ready to sell the future in this specific situation. Denver has missed the playoffs in eight straight seasons, but after a 2023 offseason that saw them send out money hand-over-fist, a second straight aggressive offseason doesn’t seem too likely.
Other Listed Options
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1600)
QB Need Ranking: 5
Giving Arthur Smith an elite athlete to work with feels — well, it feels like a story we’ve already seen play out with underwhelming results.
The Steelers have a pair of strong receivers and versatility at the RB position, making them an interesting option in the Fields sweepstakes. That said, with Kenny Pickett under contract for another two seasons at minimum, this feels like a long shot.
New England Patriots (+1600)
QB Need Ranking: 1
In 2023, the Patriots were a bottom-four offense in terms of team passer rating, yards per pass attempt, touchdown-to-interception rate, and first-down percentage. That puts them squarely in the mix for change under center.
With a new regime coming in to coach, could New England look to shake things up in a major way? It’s possible, but this offense is more than a quarterback away from producing at a league-average level.
Minnesota Vikings (+2200)
QB Need Ranking: 10
A team like the Vikings is interesting. The question on Fields is his development as a passer, and Minnesota has the best receiver in the game that can help encourage growth. They’re also just a season removed from winning 13 games, albeit in unsustainable fashion.
MORE: Rumors Suggest Vikings Could Move Up in Draft for Kirk Cousins’ Replacement
Trading Fields within the division doesn’t seem overly likely, but if the Vikings decide to move on from Kirk Cousins, this is a fantasy football-friendly spot that would result in them competing for an NFC North title in 2024.
Washington Commanders (+3000)
QB Need Ranking: 2
Much like the Steelers, the Commanders have some talent on offense that is being underutilized due to limitations at quarterback. Eric Bieniemy was fired following the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury, a sign that an offensive overhaul could be coming. Kingsbury’s last NFL stop was as the head coach with the Arizona Cardinals (2019-22):
- 2018 Cardinals: 32nd in scoring, 32nd in yards per play
- 2019-22 Cardinals: 15th in scoring, 18th in yards per play
If you’re rolling the dice down the odds board, this is my favorite.
Tennessee Titans (+4000)
QB Need Ranking: 4
Moore did wonders for Fields’ confidence, and the logic here is that DeAndre Hopkins would do something similar. Yet, the odds are what they are for a reason.
The Titans spent the 33rd overall pick on Will Levis less than eight months ago and are more than likely to take another season to evaluate him rather than pony up for a player like Fields who is exciting, but not without flaws.
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