AJ McCarron, Brian Hill, Kyle Sloter, and Sal Cannella Players To Watch

If you’re looking for Week 4 XFL St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Orlando Renegades odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

Battlehawks vs. Renegades Week 4 Odds and Betting Lines

The following odds and betting lines for the Battlehawks vs. Renegades are as of Thursday, March 9, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.

  • Point Spread: Battlehawks (-4)
  • Moneyline: Battlehawks (-175), Renegades (+150)
  • Over/Under: 36.5 (-110)

Battlehawks vs. Renegades Picks and Predictions

My Week 3 XFL point spread and moneyline picks went a combined 6-2, continuing a pretty good run as we try to make sense of this re-engineered league. But my over/unders mostly tanked. So while I feel pretty bullish about the following point spread and moneyline predictions, I’d caution you to “wait and see” on the over/under.

This Sunday’s contest features a pair of 2-1 squads with, in my opinion, very different outlooks. Let’s start with St. Louis, which boasts one of the league’s top offenses, despite having already faced two of the top-four defenses (with respect to points yielded).

MORE: 2023 XFL Standings | XFL TV Schedule

Last weekend, the Battlehawks hung 28 points on the undefeated Defenders, which had already limited the high-flying Sea Dragons to 18 points while capping the Vipers at six.

And as I wrote right after their Week 1 victory over the Brahmas, which surrendered only three points to St. Louis in the first 57 minutes of that game: “By the end of this season, I believe San Antonio’s first 57 minutes will stand out as a remarkable defensive feat. No team should be able to lock down St. Louis.”

The fact is, the Battlehawks’ offense has gelled behind one of the XFL’s premier aerial attacks. AJ McCarron is No. 3 in passing yards, though that doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s also No. 16 overall in rushing yards on a blistering 5.4 yards per carry. In a backfield that features former competent NFL contributor Brian Hill and strong backup Mataeo Durant, this constitutes a high-end running game by XFL standards.

And the contrarian in me also needs to point out that, aside from a 40-yard run in Week 1, Hill is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry. Durant is at 2.7.

But these two have compensated with exceptional pass-catching chops, reeling in a combined 14 balls for 100 yards on 16 targets. This is one way the Battlehawks wear down defenses.

The other way, of course, materializes farther downfield, where Hakeem Butler — a near afterthought taken in January’s supplemental draft — has established himself as one of the league’s top wideouts. He’s No. 4 in receiving yards and tied for No. 3 in receptions while securing 70% of his looks. Austin Proehl, Marcell Ateman, and Darrius Shepherd round out one of the XFL’s top corps.

It’s interesting that Ateman entered this season as the team’s presumed No. 1 — it’s a reminder that newly reformed leagues often lack predictability.

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So how will the Renegades keep pace? To a casual observer, their 2-1 record suggests they might be just fine. But I don’t see it. Their somewhat muted stats are even less impressive when considering they defeated the two remaining winless teams — the Vipers and Guardians — by a combined three points.

In Week 3, Kyle Sloter replaced Drew Plitt as the starting QB. The move likely made sense for Arlington’s rest-of-season development. Sloter arguably has a higher ceiling. That said, his surrounding playmakers are subpar, at best.

De’Veon Smith has plodded his way to 2.7 yards per carry on 40 totes — the XFL’s second-most rushing attempts, behind comparable plodder Kalen Ballage. Notably, Smith ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at the Combine six years ago. So … yeah. And backup Keith Ford has collected 35 ground yards on 15 carries (2.3 ypc).

Again, these numbers stem from one tough matchup vs. the Roughnecks and two soft games vs. winless clubs with beatable defenses — not a good sign.

Through the air, as I’ve been writing since the preseason, it’s Sal Cannella or bust. While Tyler Vaughns has stepped up as the Renegades’ de facto No. 1 wideout, and even though Smith has gotten into the action through the air, there’s not enough firepower in this offense to keep pace with a team like St. Louis.

In their first home game of the season, I’m betting on a 13+ point Battlehawks victory.

  • Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Battlehawks (-4)
  • Recommended Moneyline Bet: Battlehawks (-175)
  • Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-110)

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