While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
With Week 7 of the NFL season upon us, here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four for 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry.
With Underdog Fantasy, it’s a brand new season every week, no matter how your other leagues are going. Get up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up. As for my recommendations, below are my top Underdog Pick’ems for Sunday Night Football.
Tua Tagovailoa Higher Than 248.5 Passing Yards and 1.5 Passing TDs
When you dive into a single-game matchup, you have to figure out what the narrative of the game will be. Is it strength on strength? Will teams try to take the air out of the ball, or will one part of the game dictate the matchup thanks to a glaring strength vs. a team’s weakness? For me, this is the Miami passing attack against the Steelers’ passing defense. And quite frankly, I don’t know how Pittsburgh stop the Dolphins.
Having undergone likely the most public and thorough concussion evaluation ever, Tua Tagovailoa is making his return on Sunday Night Football, much to the delight of Miami. In the games in which we got to see this offense operate at full strength, they looked like a team playing Madden.
MORE: Wharton’s Fantasy Start ’em Sit ’em Week 7
His 27.9 PPR in games he has both started and finished is the second-highest in fantasy. He had 739 yards with a 7 to 2 TD to INT ratio against the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, combined. His 469 yards vs. BAL certainly is an outlier, but it demonstrates his upside in this offense.
When given time, Tua is letting it rip, sitting first in yards per attempt and sixth in adjusted completion rate. Pittsburgh did a solid job last week against Tom Brady, but I don’t see it happening twice.
The Steelers are 31st in passing yards per game allowed and are yielding the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most YAC, and the sixth-highest TD rate. Add in a bottom-three pressure rate, and with a clean pocket, Tua will likely pick this secondary apart. I am taking Tua to go higher on both his passing yards and touchdowns on Underdog Fantasy.
Tyreek Hill Higher Than 80.5 Receiving Yards
Outside of his 15.55 fantasy points, Underdog is only giving us Tyreek Hill’s receiving yardage projection, which sits at 80.5. And you know what, that’s fine with me.
The concerns about Hill’s upside sans Patrick Mahomes were put aside quickly, as Hill’s skills allow him to thrive anywhere. How good has Hill been? Well, he’s on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s all-time single-season record despite playing the majority of his snaps with Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thomspson rather than Tua.
Hill sits No. 1 in the NFL with 701 yards as the WR3 in fantasy (18.2 half-PPR). He’s fifth in target share (31.6%), 13th in air yards (36.8%), and third in targets per route run and has seen the second-most deep targets.
Pittsburgh is 17th in pass DVOA but 24th vs. opposing No. 1s, 31st in receiving yards allowed, and tied for 32nd in TDs allowed (nine). Hill shines under the bright lights, and Week 7 will be no exception. He should easily go higher than his 80.5-yard receiving projection.
Jaylen Waddle Higher Than 63.5 Receiving Yards
Everything I just said about Hill applies here to Jaylen Waddle and his 63.5-yard projection on Underdog Pick’ems. Waddle has been limited in practice with a shoulder injury, but I’m not concerned, as he will play Sunday night.
Waddle is as good as it gets after the catch, which is precisely why Miami drafted him ahead of DeVonta Smith last season. The WR10 in half-PPR scoring (14.3), Waddle sits fifth in yards (533), sixth in yards per reception at 17.8 (minimum 20 targets), and fifth in yards after the catch per reception (7.83).
The Steelers? Well, they are eighth in YAC allowed and struggle to tackle in space, sitting 13th in missed tackles. For a player like Waddle, who only needs one reception for a quick 40 yards, the volume plus game script has me taking the higher on Waddle’s 63.5-yard receiving projection.
Pat Freiermuth Higher Than 35.5 Receiving Yards
Finding something I like for the Steelers is the hard part. They are as disjointed as it gets but are getting back two key players in Kenny Pickett and Pat Freiermuth, who each cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol.
After a sensational rookie year, Freiermuth is having another breakout in 2022. The TE11 in points per game (7.9 half-PPR), Freiermuth is ninth in target share (15.7%), fifth in air yard share (13.99%), and seventh in targets per route run.
Of the Steelers’ key playmakers, Freiermuth has the best matchup. Miami is 25th in DVOA vs. TEs, last in catch rate, and 13th in receiving yards allowed per game. He is as trustworthy, if not more, than any other Steelers players who all face competition from their own positional groups.
With Underdog using half-PPR scoring, I’ll forego his 7.35 fantasy point projection but take the higher on Freiermuth’s 35.5 receiving yard projection, as he serves as the reliable, middle-of-the-field target.
Najee Harris Higher Than 2.0 Receptions
There is not a chance I am willingly tying myself to anything dealing with Najee Harris and efficiency. There simply is none to speak of in this current offense. He’s averaged 16.3 touches and 55.8 total yards. That’s it. The offensive line is abysmal, and unless Harris can make eight people miss behind the LOS, he’s lucky to get a few yards.
I’m going back to what made Harris such a valuable asset last year, and that is his ability out of the backfield as a receiver. His receiving production is massively down compared to last year’s utilization, but while it might not be enough to be felt for fantasy managers, Harris has met or exceeded two receptions in five of his six games.
Miami has done a great job this year limiting the running game, sitting sixth in yards per game, seventh in run DVOA, and 12th in EPA per rush. However, they can be exploited in the passing game.
The Dolphins are 30th vs. receiving RBs in DVOA, and despite sitting 11th in targets (33), have allowed the seventh most receiving yards. With the Steelers playing from behind, dump-offs to keep the chains moving seem likely to occur. I like Harris to clear his 2.0 reception total but will stay away from his 14.5 receiving yard projection.
