If you’re playing a New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 5, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Patriots vs. Lions DFS Lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Patriots DFS Considerations
This year, New England drafted Pierre Strong Jr. five spots before the Packers snagged Romeo Doubs. Obviously, they knew what they were doing. And yet, here we are in Week 5, with the 1-3 Patriots clinging to relevance while Strong and fellow rookie RB Kevin Harris remain glued to the bench, unable to help an offense whose primary strength is at RB.
Week in and week out, DFS lineups involving the Patriots frequently include Damien Harris and/or Rhamondre Stevenson. Both were top-24 RBs this past week. Stevenson was the RB8 in Week 3, and Harris was the RB6 the week before that. Picking both means hoping they’ll both produce at least solidly. Choosing one means hoping it’s his turn to break out.
The passing game has been and remains a mess. Jakobi Meyers is the per-game WR20 but has played in only two contests. No other Patriots WR is in the top 50. For all the flash of Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker, this remains a whack-a-mole passing attack, but instead of anticipating which mole will reveal itself, the moles hop out of the game and rip your hair out. We might roll the dice on one, but certainly not two.
Lions DFS Considerations
How do the Lions score 45 points when their top three playmakers are sidelined? Because they have a deep team filled with guys who were forced to play big minutes last season. Oh, and T.J. Hockenson was my favorite bargain TE heading into Week 4, because if not for Detroit’s talented starters, he’d be a near-elite tight end.
MORE: D’Andre Swift Injury Update
So much about this lineup hinges on the health of Detroit’s starters, and the likelihood one or two tertiary options might step up. However, one thing is clear: New England’s underrated defense should slow Jared Goff and the Lions.
The Patriots have lost to Miami, Baltimore, and Green Bay. They’re certainly battle-tested. Despite averaging the most points in the league, Detroit probably won’t come close to hitting their season average.
Recommended DFS Lineup
Let’s be ablundantly bunt. I mean, abundantly blunt. If D’Andre Swift plays, he and Jamaal Williams would be humongous DFS risks. Think of the largest monster taking up residence under your bed. Then imagine your bed is as big as that Great British Baking Show house. Or better yet, the Downtown Abbey house, plus the Dryden Park house that misunderstood scoundrel Thomas Barrow tried to work in.
Yeah, you know what I’m talking about.
And if Swift sits, sure, fire up Williams for $10,000. While he’s due for a regression, his ceiling is too high to ignore. And as long as we’re discussing running backs, add Stevenson ($9,200) and deserving Captain Harris ($9,600 normally, $14,400 as Captain). Harris brings electric TD potential against one of the league’s worst defenses.
With our remaining hard-earned money, we’ll lock in Hockenson ($7,400), Parker ($6,400), and Hunter Henry ($2,400). Remember Henry? Used to be a weekly fantasy starter. Now an afterthought in New England. But with Jonnu Smith doubtful and Henry on the field for most of the game, I’m betting the veteran will be forced to step up.
If Swift returns, then cancel my Williams order. Instead, let’s go with Goff ($10,600) and hope for 17+ points. Then snag Meyers ($5,800) if he’s 100%. If he isn’t, then start Agholor ($5,400).
