In his second year with the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff showed much improvement in his play. He displayed upside we hadn’t seen since 2018. With another year of experience and more offensive weapons, is there a path to Goff finishing as a top-five QB in fantasy football in 2023?
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Is a Top-5 QB Finish in Jared Goff’s Range of Outcomes?
It’s always tricky when evaluating a player’s range of outcomes because, technically, the threshold is merely, “Is it possible?” In 2018, Goff had a career year, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game. Although he finished as the QB9, he was only 1.3 ppg behind the QB5, Andrew Luck. It wouldn’t have taken too much more to get him there.
Now, to be fair, five years was a long time ago. We were starting to see the rise of the prominence of mobile quarterbacks, but it wasn’t yet at the level it is now. That doesn’t mean pocket passers have no shot, though. We just saw Joe Burrow do it last season. Goff is obviously not Burrow, but the way in which Goff gets into the top five will be like Burrow, not Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen.
So, is a top-five finish in Goff’s range of outcomes? Of course. But that doesn’t really help anyone. What we really need to determine is if it’s in his plausible range of outcomes. To do that, we need to figure out how Goff ends up with a top-five season.
First, we need to look at what it usually takes to finish inside the top five fantasy quarterbacks. To do that, I looked back at every overall QB1 since the great QB boom of 2011, which is the unofficial start of the NFL transitioning to the modern, pass-happy version.
There were three numbers I was interested in: the highest-scoring QB5, the lowest-scoring QB5, and the average QB5. Here is what I found.
The highest it ever took to reach QB5 was in 2020 when Deshaun Watson averaged 23.5 ppg and only finished as the QB5.
The lowest it ever took to reach QB5 was in 2017 when Tom Brady got there with just 19.0 ppg.
On average, over the past 12 seasons, the average QB5 finished with 21.05 ppg. So, we’ll call it 21 ppg.
It is important to note that while this average covers 12 years, it is the earlier seasons that weigh it down more. Over the past five seasons, only Justin Fields (2022) failed to reach 21 ppg, and he still got to 20.5 ppg.
Last season, Goff experienced a resurgence after a dismal 2021 campaign that saw him average a career-worst 14.5 ppg. He threw for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, averaging 17.1 ppg. That was good for a QB14 finish.
The best way to do this is to look at what Goff did in 2018 with the Rams, compare the two offenses, figure out if we he can reasonably do that with the Lions, and also find another point per game.
In 2018, Goff was working with quite an explosive set of offensive players. The Rams had Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks at wide receiver. They also had a still elite Todd Gurley producing as a runner and a receiver.
This season, Goff will be throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is incredible, but not much else. Jameson Williams had a rookie year that did not inspire any confidence. Plus, he’s suspended for the first six games. The Lions traded away T.J. Hockenson last season and replaced him with rookie Sam LaPorta. Their WR2 to open the season projects to be Josh Reynolds.
It is noteworthy that the Lions added Jahmyr Gibbs, who could be very productive as a pass catcher. However, Gibbs is still a running back — a rookie at that. This offense is still a far cry from the powerhouse that was the 2018 Rams.
Since we’re obviously looking at ceiling outcomes here, let’s see how high we can project Goff. My projections have Goff throwing for 4,377 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. That comes out to 17.0 ppg and a QB19 finish — pretty far from 21 ppg or top five.
To get Goff to 21 ppg, we could project a couple hundred more yards and an outlier touchdown season. The problem I have with doing that is we have no basis for it.
Goff has been in the NFL for seven years — this will be his eighth. He’s never thrown more than 32 touchdowns in a season. And even surpassing 30 is something he’s only done once.
If we take Goff’s career year in 2018, take away four interceptions, and add five touchdowns, that would get him there. So, it’s technically possible. But is it likely?
The Importance of Rushing for the Modern Fantasy QB
If you look at the top-five fantasy quarterbacks over the past few years, almost all of them have some level of mobility. Not everyone has to be Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but other than Burrow, most are at least as mobile as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
We know Goff isn’t going to supplement any of his production on the ground. The man’s career-high in single-season rushing yards is 108. If he rushes for a touchdown, it’s likely either a fluke or a QB sneak. This makes it exceedingly difficult for Goff to reach the 21 ppg threshold, as he has to do it pretty much through touchdowns.
How Likely Is Jared Goff To Finish Inside the Top-5 Fantasy QBs?
Goff is a solid fantasy quarterback. Even in single-QB leagues, he probably deserves to be drafted. If he isn’t, he will undoubtedly pop up as a streamer multiple times throughout the season.
Unfortunately, I do not see a top-five finish in 2023 fantasy football as particularly likely. I can’t say it’s impossible because stranger things have happened. But it sure looks like a very low-probability outcome.
