After four seasons in Chicago, David Montgomery took his talents to Detroit and joined a Lions offense that led the NFL in fantasy football points via running backs last season. So, it’s easy, right? Lock him (still just 26 years old) in as a fantasy football top-20 RB and move on.
Not so fast.
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How Limited Is David Montgomery’s Ceiling?
Despite a pretty clear role as the feature back in all four of his seasons, Montgomery has one finish better than RB15 on a per-game basis (half-PPR, RB9 in 2020). Uno.
In that season, Montgomery took advantage of little RB target competition and capitalized with career highs in targets, catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
Even if you think he’s “the guy” in this Lions backfield (I, personally, do not), there’s no denying that first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs is going to factor in. At the very least, Gibbs’ 3.3 catches per game during his three collegiate seasons caps the upside of Montgomery to a point where projecting a top-20 finish at the position is tough to justify.
Gibbs’ pass-catching prowess alone has the potential to slide Montgomery into more of a two-down role than he has had in years past, and his big-play potential (4.36 speed) could lead to the Lions trying to work him in on early downs. We’ve yet to see Montgomery be an efficient back (career 3.9 yards per carry), so the more volume we gradually knock off of his role, the more fragile his 2023 status as a locked-in fantasy starter becomes.
Evaluating the Running Back Position
Of course, part of any “will PLAYER X finish TOP-XX” conversation has to include some analysis of the position as a whole. Everyone will draw the line at a different spot, but to my eye, there are 13 backs with an ironclad role that a player like Montgomery is facing a very uphill battle to out-produce (from your RB1 down to Joe Mixon). I think we can agree on that, so now it’s a matter of justifying ranking seven other RBs ahead of Montgomery.
Aaron Jones
Edge over Montgomery: Aaron Jones has held the role edge over AJ Dillon in consecutive seasons and plays for an offense that is projected to revolve around the run.
J.K. Dobbins
Edge over Montgomery: J.K. Dobbins plays with a mobile QB that should allow his per-carry production to be superior to that of Montgomery. For my money, he holds his RB1 role with greater security than Montgomery does.
Miles Sanders
Edge over Montgomery: Like Montgomery, Miles Sanders switched teams but comes without the carry competition. The reports of Sanders potentially being more involved in the passing game also gives him a path to production that Montgomery may struggle to match.
D’Andre Swift
Edge over Montgomery: This one isn’t a lock, but the potential is certainly there in an Eagles offense that should again rank among the best in the league. We know that receptions are worth more fantasy implied points than carries, and the catch count for D’Andre Swift over Montgomery should offset any deficit he faces in carries.
Rachaad White
Edge over Montgomery: The Bucs’ offense isn’t going to be good, but Rachaad White has the lead role to himself and has proven more than competent in the passing game.
James Conner
Edge over Montgomery: Austin Ekeler is the only player with more touchdowns over the past two seasons and has a career catch rate near 83%. Like Montgomery, he’s not exciting, but unlike Montgomery, he has a clear path to elite volume.
Isiah Pacheco
Edge over Montgomery: “Lead back for the Chiefs” is really all I need. Isiah Pacheco is limited as a pass catcher, but the sheer number of red-zone trips makes a bruiser like him a safer bet than Montgomery.
Naturally, you don’t have to rank all of these guys ahead of Montgomery, but you have to acknowledge that they have the chance to finish that way. Projections are all about a range of outcomes, and though these RBs were not mentioned above, they have more than a puncher’s chance of finishing the season ahead of Montgomery.
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Dalvin Cook
- Cam Akers
- Alexander Mattison
- Javonte Williams
- Alvin Kamara
