Davante Adams has been nothing short of fantasy football royalty for the past seven seasons, and he proved that he wasn’t reliant on Aaron Rodgers by putting up a 10–1,516-14 stat line in 2022, his first year with the Las Vegas Raiders.
His seeing 10-plus targets per game is nothing new. He’s done it in each of the past five seasons. But his average depth of target rose by 27.8% in 2022 compared to his final two years in Lambeau, a role change that resulted in more than a few spike weeks.
What do I mean by “spike weeks,” you ask? He was the only player with multiple games last season in which he racked up 140 receiving yards and at least two touchdown receptions. He had four such games, the first player to do that in a single season this millennium.
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The Case Against Davante Adams
While the final stat line blends in with what Adams did while wearing the Green and Gold, look at the game-by-game production. Peaks and valleys. And we aren’t talking about minor blips. We’re talking about major swings.
From 2018-21, Adams played 57 games, and 57 times he surpassed 35 receiving yards. That may sound like a low bar to clear, but he was held under 30 receiving yards on four different occasions last season (including Weeks 15-16, a lack of production that came at the worst time possible for fantasy managers).
There isn’t a person on this planet doubting Adams’ talent, but in separating from a great quarterback, even he couldn’t avoid the occasional dud game, something that could tank your season.
That potential risk is only amplified by the makeup of this offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is an efficient quarterback but not much of a threat to light the scoreboard on fire.
Combine his skill set with a running back coming off of an All-Pro season and the addition of a professional chain-mover in Jakobi Meyers, and the Raiders don’t profile as a high-octane aerial offense.
That may seem like nit-picking, and that’s because it is. But you have to at this level. Look at the offensive support behind some of the other elite options at the position:
- Buffalo Bills (Stefon Diggs): second in PPG
- Philadelphia Eagles (A.J. Brown): third in PPG
- Dallas Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb): fourth in PPG
- Detroit Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown): fifth in PPG
You might like Garoppolo as a quarterback that is capable of winning games. But even the ceiling of this Raiders offense might not have enough firepower to compete with the offenses in which other high-end receivers play.
The Case For Davante Adams
I could advance stat you to death, but does this really require that? Adams has been a top-10 receiver in each of his past six healthy (minimum 13 games played) seasons, a stretch that includes finishing as a top-four receiver in each of his past four healthy campaigns. So yes, to a degree, you could argue that “top-five” is undershooting the expectation.
In 2022, Adams was the WR4 and posted not one, not two, not three, but four games north of 30 fantasy points. Those numbers are impressive for any player on any offense. But for the 2022 Raiders? That’s downright silly.
Raiders Rankings (2022)
- Completions: 15th
- Passer rating: 18th
- Completion percentage: 27th
- Interception rate: 28th
You can think whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo, but are you not tempted to think this team improves upon those rankings this season? And with no real target competition (I like Jakobi Meyers as much as anyone, but c’mon), if those overall numbers jump, is it not safe to assume Adams at least approaches last year’s numbers or even finds a way to build on them?
The Final Verdict
The top of the receiver position is loaded with high-end talent, and that is exactly what Adams is. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase come with virtually no risk, but you could make the case for Adams being the next WR off the board after those two. And with a resume that reflects an elite floor, spending a first-round pick on Vegas’ star is certainly viable.
Whether or not he finishes as a top-five receiver in fantasy football almost doesn’t matter. The fact that his annual range of outcomes is so narrow makes him a strong investment.
