Ideally, fantasy football would be a game that is completely fair and where everyone is equal. Unfortunately, that’s just not possible. We try to make things as fair as we can, but there will inevitably be some inequities. One of those inequities is draft position. What is the best slot to draft from, and how does draft position impact fantasy football strategy?
What Is the Best Position To Have for Your Fantasy Football Draft Strategy?
Most fantasy football leagues determine their draft order by a random draw. Some leagues add a layer by having the random draw determine in which order managers can pick their draft slot. If you had the opportunity to select any draft slot, where should it be?
Draft Slot Value Over Replacement
Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett recently did an analysis of expected value over replacement (VORP) by draft slot. He found that a top-three draft pick has a 114% edge on one that’s in the bottom three.
In the past, I’ve had friends tell me they wanted a lower pick so they could get two of the guys they wanted. There were times when I shared that viewpoint. Over the years, though, I’ve learned that the earlier you pick, the better.
Should You Always Want the Highest Pick Possible?
On a macro level, the answer is probably “yes.” However, generally, I try to resist saying you should “always” do something. Fantasy football isn’t that simple. Just because you pick first doesn’t mean you’re going to win. It doesn’t even mean you’ll have the best players.
There are so many variables when it comes to fantasy football that it’s impossible to make the absolute best pick at every draft slot. Regardless of where you pick, if you make the optimal selection (which is defined retroactively based on fantasy points scored), you will likely win.
You can win from anywhere. But draft position does play a significant factor in determining which players you can even consider drafting.
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Using the upcoming 2023 season as an example, if you pick toward the back end, there is quite literally a 0% chance you can draft Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, or Austin Ekeler. Not happening. Ever.
The thing is, picking at the front has the same restrictions, just on different players. If you pick at the front, you will get one of those four players if you want. But what if you genuinely want two of the guys in the 8-16 ADP range? Do you just take a guy well ahead of ADP because there’s no chance you can get him next round?
Based on rankings and ADP, the players that typically go at the 1-2 turn are pretty much off the table for you.
This is one of the main reasons I love auction drafting so much. No player gets erased from your draft board simply due to your draft slot. But that’s an article for a different day.
There Are Advantages to Picking in the Middle
Statistically, picking early gives you the best chance to win. Meanwhile, having a pick at either corner gives you better odds of getting both players you want when you have two guys you’re struggling to decide between at your pick. But what about the middle?
The best part about picking in the middle is the ability to catch falling value. When you pick on the corners, almost every other manager in your league gets a chance to pick before you. If you see a player tumbling past his ADP, you will feel that burning desire to scoop up that value. The closer you pick to the corners, the more teams that player has to get past in order to make it to you.
When you pick in the middle, it’s a little more or a little less than half the league each round. If it exists, you can grab value in every round.
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Succeeding from a middle draft slot often requires you to be very malleable during drafts. Value inevitably presents itself. You must be prepared to take it when it does.
A common pitfall of an inexperienced fantasy manager is steadfastly sticking to a particular strategy. Just because you need an RB2 doesn’t mean you take the best available running back if there’s a much higher-ranked WR available who realistically should’ve gone already. Draft for value before need. Well, to an extent.
Therein lies the problem for managers picking at the corners. If you know you need that RB2, and you pick in the middle, you can say to yourself, “I can wait one more round.” But if a manager picking on the corners does that, that team could be looking at 20+ players off the board before they pick next. It’s much more difficult to do.
With so many players drafted between each of their two sets of picks, teams at the corners have to assume that if they pass on a player, he’s not making it back to them. This often forces managers to draft players earlier than their ADPs. In the middle, it’s conceivable that every pick you make is a value.
Is There a Particular Position You Have To Take Based on Draft Slot?
The most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. I don’t anticipate that changing anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean you have to take the best available running back with your first-round pick.
Fantasy football is a game predicated on predicting the outcome of another game. There’s no objectively superior approach to drafting your fantasy team. Of course, you should enter your draft with a specific strategy in mind. But you should be willing to very quickly alter that strategy based on the draft room.
So, perhaps I should amend that statement to be, “You should enter your draft with various specific strategies in mind and be prepared to execute whichever one is optimal.”
You want to make the best possible selection at every pick. Some years, that may involve taking running backs early and often. In other years, it may involve going wide receiver-heavy. There will even be situations where an early-round tight end appears to be the optimal move.
Whatever you decide to do, know that it’s possible to win with that draft strategy — unless that strategy is taking kickers and defenses in the first two rounds. Don’t do that.
If Given the Choice, What Draft Position Should I Select?
I am always taking No. 1. Give me as high of a pick as possible. But the reason is not necessarily what you think.
There are roughly nine players this season I would feel supremely confident about having as my first pick. It’s not about the first round but rather the third round.
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Each year, there are typically a handful of Round 3 players that are clearly better than the rest of the available players. There’s a cliff, if you will. When you pick early, you have a better shot at securing one of those players. That’s where I find the biggest edge to be in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts.
It’s one of the main reasons the third-round reversal draft structure was even invented.
I count 27 players in 2023 fantasy football drafts that I value at a level substantially above the rest. That means only the teams picking in the top three get to draft three of them. That’s where I want to be.
