The New York Jets are once again quarterback-shopping after seeing 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson fall flat in his first two seasons in the NFL.
As the NFL awaits Aaron Rodgers’ decision as to whether he wants to play and, if so, where that might be, the top available quarterback, for now, is Derek Carr. The former Las Vegas Raiders passer was released on February 15 before the team had to exercise a $40.4 million option in his contract.
Breaking Down a Derek Carr-New York Jets Match
Because Carr had a no-trade clause and the leverage of the option, he mildly entertained accepting a trade to the New Orleans Saints before opting against waiving his no-trade clause. Being a free agent gives him the chance to sign with one of a handful of quarterback-needy teams, including the Jets, for a more lucrative contract.
Since being released, the Jets have been the only team Carr has visited. His brother, former No. 1 overall pick and Houston Texans quarterback David Carr, said Derek’s free agency will “be a long process” as he assesses his options.
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Surely, some of that is on the teams’ side as they await to see if Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, or Geno Smith become available. There’s obviously more star appeal to Rodgers and Jackson, and the Jets would be wise to wait out those situations with Carr since they’re better players right now.
ESPN’s Dianna Russini reported the Jets are interested in Carr but plan to wait for Rodgers before making a move. But New York should also feel comfortable with Carr leading their offense. We’re going to break down what a Carr-led Jets offense would look like in 2023.
Why the Raiders Released Derek Carr
After nine seasons, it was time to move on for both the Raiders and Carr. Following two postseason appearances in nine years and just one playoff start (and loss) for Carr individually.
Carr became a bit of the scapegoat for the team’s disappointing 6-11 season under Josh McDaniels, though he was not the main reason that team blew an unimaginable six fourth-quarter leads. Carr will be 32 years old for the 2023 season, and it’s safe to say the book is out on him.
He’s 63-80 (.441) as a starter, and the record would be more forgivable if Carr’s offensive production was better. He has only led two top 10 offenses in points per drive in nine years, and those were units that finished No. 8 in two of the last three seasons.
Here is where Carr ranks among the 55 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts since his 2014 rookie year (playoffs included):
- 64.4% pass completions (24th)
- 7.1 yards per pass attempt (32nd)
- 4.3% touchdown pass rate (31st)
- 2.0% interception rate (17th lowest)
- 91.5 passer rating (27th)
- 5.06% sack rate (13th lowest)
- 6.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (23rd)
Carr has been durable with a minimal injury history. He has above-average accuracy and ball security, and he can get the ball out on time better than most. But finishing drives in the end zone and with more touchdown passes has often been an issue, so his overall stats are close to average in this sample of quarterbacks.
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In many ways, Carr has been atop the “average” range of quarterback rankings for the better part of his career despite impressive physical tools. Sure enough, Carr finished 2022 ranked No. 14 in ESPN’s QBR metric for the second year in a row.
It is not impossible to win a Super Bowl with what is roughly the 14th-best quarterback in the NFL. Even Andy Dalton once made the playoffs five years in a row with Cincinnati. But it is impossible to win like that if you do not have a great defense or if said quarterback cannot catch fire for a month and play above his head against playoff competition like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, or Nick Foles did.
Despite some concerning numbers, including Carr’s record when the Raiders held opponents under 20 points (last in the NFL), it still feels like there’s meat on the bone with Carr. The franchise continued to trip over itself even when Carr played his best.
The Jets have to be willing to bet they won’t recreate the numerous roster issues the Raiders had over the last nine years.
Derek Carr Can Star In Jets Offense
The Jets have reportedly communicated supreme confidence in what Carr can be in New York. They haven’t been shy about saying as much to the QB himself. “[The Jets] made it super personal too, they said, ‘We believe if you come to New York and win, you could be a first ballot Hall of Famer,’” according to Russini.
That’s ambitious, but there’s little doubt Carr would walk into a situation that he’s never had before. The 2022 Raiders were supposed to be offensive juggernauts, but injuries to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow proved limiting for Carr’s upside.
The Jets don’t have Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs, but second-year playmakers Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall headline an impressive young corps of talent. Wilson won 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Hall would’ve likely won it himself had he not torn his ACL midway through the year.
The rest of the Jets’ roster is considerably better than the Raiders’. Their defense boasts 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner and a deep group of trench players. They can carve more cap space if need be as they load up for a playoff run.
New York had the fourth-best scoring defense last year despite the 29th-ranked offense. Firing offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and replacing him with Nathaniel Hackett is a questionable move, but the team added more experience and someone Carr has worked with before in Todd Downing.
If nothing else, professionalism won’t be an issue as it was under LaFleur. The bar is low for Carr to be a massive upgrade. The Jets’ quarterbacks completed only 56.9% of their passes for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Carr has never been that bad or inefficient.
Even as Carr’s raw numbers dipped in 2022, his advanced numbers show promise promise that he can create big plays even at this point in his career. He ranked fifth in “money throws”, second in air yards per attempt, fifth in deep ball attempts, 11th in EPA, and 14th in play-action completion percentage.
McDaniels asked Carr to push the ball downfield more than we’d seen before, and the results, predictably, led to less efficiency. Besides Zach Wilson’s seventh-highest air yards per attempt number, both he and Mike White paled in comparison to Carr’s numbers. They lacked the floor and the ceiling of Carr’s play.
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Hackett and Downing both preferred more intermediate play-action concepts throughout their histories with Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill, respectively. Carr is a plus play-action passer who thrives on short and intermediate throws.
The Jets can build an offense around Carr like the Packers did Rodgers when Matt LaFleur and Hackett took over in 2019. Downing was with Carr from 2015 through 2017 as his QB coach and then offensive coordinator in his final season.
Those years helped push Carr into being a better player but featured more of a spread passing system than the now-popular offense that’s been ripped off Kyle Shanahan by most of the league. Carr would benefit from a switch to a scheme that gets players like Garrett Wilson into the open field for yards after the catch.
Blending favorable concepts with Carr’s newfound willingness to push the ball downfield can bring out the best in him. For much of his career, I felt Carr was too content to take the check-down option and pad his stats with meaningless throws.
Last year’s ultra-aggressive offense that lacked options outside of Adams didn’t work, but there’s a balance that New York can uniquely offer. It’s certainly possible that Carr’s best days are ahead of him.
The Raiders were never able to field defenses and offenses that were simultaneously good enough around Carr, but the Jets have a deeper cast of talent to build around the quarterback.
Losing out on Jackson, Rodgers, and Carr would be devastating for the Jets. The gap between Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo is notable enough to put a firm cap on their upside in 2023. The franchise should proceed with haste on Carr if Rodgers, in particular, resists a deal to New York.
