If you’re looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL DFS picks in Week 15, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following two recommended fantasy football lineups (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aim to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Bills Considerations
These two DFS lineups assume Buffalo will avenge their early-season loss to Miami. These days, the Bills look like the more complete team. Increasingly, Miami has had a Tyreek Hill-or-bust identity. The recent return of CB Tre’Davious White gives Buffalo a little more defensive juice to help offset the loss of Von Miller.
The X-factor is the impending snowstorm, which could transform these two high-flying teams into run-heavy offenses, which would advantage the Bills.
And that’s the key to crafting these DFS lineups. One must factor the strong possibility that Buffalo wins the ground war, forcing Tua Tagovailoa to throw in adverse conditions, increasing the odds of sacks and turnovers.
While Miami’s defense has been tough against running backs, it’s a different calculus facing one of the most mobile QBs in NFL history. There’s an opening for Josh Allen and his two primary RBs to shine, especially in potentially snowy and icy conditions that would neutralize any run-defense advantage Miami might have.
Dolphins Considerations
If you’re a Dolphins fan, it’s been a great season so far. But a loss today would push this formerly 8-3 team to 8-6 with the Packers, Patriots, and Jets on the horizon. There has to be some anxiety, and unfortunately for Miami fans, I see tonight’s game only exacerbating that anxiety.
In DFS, we simply cannot trust the high-priced and seemingly still hobbled Jaylen Waddle. Trent Sherfield is boom-bust with only rare boom. No RB has hit 40+ rushing yards since Week 10. Myles Gaskin is the league’s best pass-catching blocker. Et cetera.
MORE: Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 15
In ideal weather conditions, we might lean into Tua and certainly Hill. Maybe Waddle could rebound. Or due to a hobbled Jeff Wilson Jr., perhaps Raheem Mostert could break through.
Or, this could be a frustrating evening. While we can’t in good conscience avoid Hill, no other Dolphin seems wholly reliable in a tough matchup in tough conditions.
Top DFS Picks for Bills vs. Dolphins
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Josh Allen, Bills ($17,400)
A no-brainer. Allen dominated Miami when they last met, cracking 30 DFS points. He’s enjoying one of the statistically greatest QB seasons in history. Fire him up. Icy conditions be damned.
Flex: WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($11,200)
As alluded to above, Hill belongs in both DFS lineups. Even in bad weather, we should expect 12+ points and the presumption that he’ll lead all Dolphins in DFS scoring.
Flex: RB Devin Singletary, Bills ($7,000)
Part one of a hedge. Devin Singletary is boom-bust. So is James Cook. Put them together, and we’ll have a tandem priced just above Hill, and with a similarly combined upside.
Flex: WR Trent Sherfield, Dolphins ($5,000)
There aren’t many worthwhile players to target in the $200-$6,000 range in this contest. In bad weather, I’m avoiding both kickers, further limiting our options. Sherfield at least brings big-play ability, especially if Miami’s operating from behind for much of the game.
Flex: RB James Cook, Bills ($4,800)
Cook’s value could skyrocket by next summer. For now, his inclusion in this slate assumes 9+ touches for 12+ points.
Flex: Bills D/ST ($4,600)
With $4,600 remaining, we’ll use all of it on the mostly underperforming Bills D/ST. Still, we can’t understate the impact snow and ice could have on sacks and turnovers. And Buffalo has a lot of high-end defensive playmakers to capitalize on mental and physical mistakes.
Secondary DFS Picks for Bills vs. Dolphins
The following NFL betting recommendations assume a different game script featuring a more competitive battle between two teams largely undeterred by the weather. Allen remains in our Captain slot, joined by Hill and Cook. The other three spots are filled by the following players:
Flex: WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($11,000)
Going for ceiling here. We could opt for the cheaper Gabe Davis or even Isaiah McKenzie. But doing so wouldn’t enable us to snag another elite-upside option. So we’re left with a choice: Diggs, or two boom-bust options with middling booms. I’d go Diggs.
Flex: K Tyler Bass, Bills ($4,000)
Since this lineup assumes the weather won’t severely hinder each team’s passing games, it also assumes the field will be in good enough condition to facilitate some field-goal tries. Tyler Bass is one of the best in the game. He needs only two attempts to have a real shot at 10+ points, including the usual complement of extra points.
Flex: WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., Dolphins ($1,400)
Drastic times call for drastic measures. Seriously, with $1,600 remaining, Cedrick Wilson Jr. is our best bet. And he’s not a terrible bet at this price, assuming River Cracraft ($200) misses another game.
If, however, Cracraft returns without limitations, I would swap him in for Wilson, and then “upgrade” Bass for the higher-upside Dawson Knox ($5,400).
Whatever you decide, good luck today.
