If you’re looking for Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL DFS picks in Week 15, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Browns Considerations
As with many betting, fantasy, and general NFL analysts, I’ve written a lot about the nuances of Deshaun Watson’s move to Cleveland. Principally, if/when the Browns are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, they’ll have nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing to trot out their $250 million (guaranteed) investment in meaningless games.
This is what the Browns signed up for. They went all in on a QB who’s now trying to recapture the magic of his 2020 self in a new system, surrounded by new teammates, and knowing that anything short of multiple postseason runs in the coming years would be viewed as a contractual disaster.
These are the stakes heading into this must-win contest against their divisional rivals. The 5-8 Browns have three winnable games to close the season: the Saints, Commanders, and Steelers. They’ll probably need to run the table to have a shot at the playoffs.
When crafting this DFS lineup, we should consider which Browns need to step up and — based on Baltimore’s tough run defense and more porous secondary — can step up. I’m not anticipating an overly conservative game plan for a franchise on the ropes.
Watson has three terrific pass-catchers and a supposedly elite backfield at his disposal. I’m betting Cleveland will have a go-big-or-go-home approach, employing the most pass-friendly game plan we’ve seen from them in a while.
Ravens Considerations
The similarities are jarring. Last year, Baltimore looked like a Super Bowl contender at 8-3. Then Lamar Jackson got hurt, and they lost their final six games — including five by three points or less — to barely miss the playoffs.
Now they’re 9-4. Jackson is hurt. And a loss to Cleveland could push them out of first place in the AFC North. Basically, they’re not out of the woods yet. Their WR corps remains anemic by most metrics, with Chiefs and Raiders cast-off Demarcus Robinson serving as the No. 1 WR.
Meanwhile, Mark Andrews has operated as a middling TE (production-wise) these past six weeks. Can we trust him in DFS? Should we hedge him with rookie Isaiah Likely, who inexplicably posted a bagel last weekend after offering solid-to-terrific value in three of his previous four outings?
And, of course, the return of J.K. Dobbins has to get our attention. He was one of the best young RBs in the league entering the 2021 season before an ACL tear put his promising career on hold. If this game remains close — or surely if Baltimore maintains a lead — Dobbins could dominate against one of the weakest run defenses.
Top DFS Picks for Browns vs. Ravens
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: TE Mark Andrews, Ravens ($11,400)
As shared often, I believe in the power of NFL adjustments. Teams reassess continuously on both sides of the ball and in the context of their upcoming opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.
Andrews has struggled recently, relatively speaking. But I’m willing to bet on a blow-up performance in a contest Baltimore needs to win in their push for the AFC 3-seed — and perhaps even a 1-seed if things break perfectly.
Flex: QB Deshaun Watson, Browns ($10,400)
Although his ceiling remains questionable, Watson has a deceptively high floor. I expect more running and a more productive passing game. 22+ DFS points seem realistic.
Flex: WR Amari Cooper, Browns ($9,400)
We can choose between Amari Cooper and Chubb ($9,800). I’m going with the more explosive Cooper. RBs are averaging 3.7 yards per carry against Baltimore.
In all likelihood, Chubb would need to score to crack 18 points. Cooper has more TD potential and assuredly should garner at least twice as many receptions in a long-awaited bounce-back performance.
Flex: RB J.K. Dobbins, Ravens ($9,200)
Hard to ignore Dobbins’ favorable matchup. This move assumes a competitive game where Baltimore can afford to lean on Dobbins for at least three full quarters.
Flex: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns ($8,200)
Expensive for a supposed No. 2 WR, but also a bargain in some ways. With no Ravens WR worth his salary, Donovan Peoples-Jones is a great fit in a pass-centric DFS slate.
Flex: WR Jaelon Darden, Browns ($200)
Raise your hand if you already knew Jaelon Darden left Tampa Bay for Cleveland. You’re not alone — the Browns signed him on December 7th after placing Anthony Schwartz on injured reserve.
The move was telling. Cleveland has little depth at wideout, especially with rookie David Bell poised to miss Saturday’s game. Fellow rookie Michael Woods II would have been the next man up. He still might be. Or RB Demetric Felton could play a hybrid role.
But I think Cleveland acquired the speedy Darden as a much-needed insurance policy. We already have a top-heavy DFS lineup. With $1,400 remaining, our options are limited. Darden might get 12-15 offensive snaps for his new team. He’s worth the dart throw.
Whatever you decide, good luck today.
