If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, and/or if took our advice on Thursday and bet on KhaDarel Hodge to score (22-to-1 payout), then welcome to our Week 10 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
SNF NFL Week 10 Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Christian McCaffrey (-150) — BetMGM
My premise for these “anytime TD” recommendations is that San Francisco will win comfortably against an injury-riddled team with little room for error. In particular, the Chargers are yielding a league-high 5.7 yards per carry. Losing Joey Bosa certainly didn’t help.
Christian McCaffrey is a perfect fit in San Francisco, and his scoring potential has spiked. In his final five games in Carolina, he earned only five red-zone touches — the same total as his last outing with the Niners before the Week 9 bye.
Jimmy Garoppolo is not a major threat to score near the goal line. In Week 8, McCaffrey scored on two of those red-zone touches (once from the nine-yard line and once from the one). We might expect similar success tonight.
Christian McCaffrey, First Touchdown (+450) — BetMGM
Another McCaffrey bet? Sure. If the Chargers receive the opening kickoff, I’m not banking on them reaching the end zone on their first drive. San Francisco’s been a little above average in first-quarter defense, surrendering the 14th-fewest points per game in the opening frame (3.9).
On offense, the Niners are ninth in first-quarter points (4.6) and are fourth at home (7.7). And more pointedly, no team has given up more first-quarter points per game than the Chargers (6.8).
This is an intriguing combination of factors. I believe McCaffrey has a 30%-35% chance of scoring the first touchdown of the game. That makes him a strong bet at +450 odds.
Brandon Aiyuk (+115) — BetMGM
The next two wagers are hedges. I believe Garoppolo will throw for two scores. Perhaps one will go to McCaffrey. Brandon Aiyuk has elevated his game this season and is now a weekly threat to find the end zone in a middling-to-plus matchup.
George Kittle (+150) — BetMGM
Part two of the hedge. George Kittle has hit paydirt in each of the last two games. That shouldn’t overly influence this betting decision. But it’s clear his early-season injury woes are firmly behind him.
Note that he has zero drops this season for the first time in his career. While it’s been only six games, it’s notable given Aiyuk’s two drops, Jauan Jennings’ five, and Deebo Samuel’s seven. Kittle’s hands have been 24-carat gold (i.e. the softest kind of gold).
Gerald Everett, Last Touchdown (+1200) — BetMGM
Since these bets assume a comfortable 49ers victory, I’m banking on a late-game Chargers score with San Francisco’s defense shifting more to “prevent-and-run-down-the-clock.”
No doubt, Gerald Everett has had major drop issues: six in all, which is extraordinarily high for a modestly utilized tight end. But he also has two scores, the Chargers need to get him going in a (currently) pass-challenged offense, and 18 of his 52 targets (35%) have come in the fourth quarter.
If L.A. is driving in the fourth quarter, Everett will have a legitimate shot at scoring the game’s final TD.
Isaiah Spiller, Last Touchdown (+3300) — BetMGM
The same scenario outlined above, except this time, with the game out of reach and the Chargers simply trying to get points on the board, instead of Justin Herbert looking to Everett near the goal line, Isaiah Spiller would get the nod.
Two considerations here. First, if the game’s essentially over, there would be no good reason for Austin Ekeler to handle snaps. Second, Spiller appears to be the No. 2 RB. The rookie has missed a lot of time this season, so it seems the team wants to get him more work and see what they have.
And assuredly, he deserves it. Spiller’s seven carries last weekend wasn’t charity. He looked good, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. The fourth-round draft pick has starter abilities. His +3300 odds deservedly make him a longshot. But he’s also the best kind of longshot if the game script follows expectations.
