One of the reasons why the NFL has completely overtaken the United States sports landscape is the parity from season to season. In 18 of the past 20 NFL seasons, at least one club has gone from worst in their division one year to winning it the next. With training camps in full swing, which teams have the best chance of matching the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars?
Ranking the NFL’s Worst-To-First Candidates in 2023
First, we must establish who stunk a season ago, starting with the AFC North and ending with the NFC West.
- Cleveland Browns
- Chicago Bears
- Houston Texans
- Atlanta Falcons
- New York Jets
- Washington Commanders
- Denver Broncos
- Arizona Cardinals
The Washington Commanders won the most games a season ago, finishing 8-8-1 in a tough NFC East. The Jets and Falcons each won seven games in 2022. But ranking the worst-to-first candidates involves more variables than how the team finished last season. Schedule, roster arrivals and departures, and division toughness all come into play here. What we cannot account for are potential injuries.
1) Atlanta Falcons
Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith are incredibly clever. The New Orleans Saints are the favorites to win the NFC South today, but the Falcons have done their best to sabotage the Saints’ efforts. They hired the Saints’ DC to be their own. They also snatched David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss from New Orleans in the offseason.
But Atlanta also made a few great moves outside of the New Orleans scope. Jessie Bates should be an incredible fit for Ryan Nielsen’s defense, and Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree add much-needed pop and leadership to the defensive front. Getting back a healthy Kyle Pitts with Desmond Ridder looking to emerge in Year 2 with Bijan Robinson behind him in an Arthur Smith offense leaning on the run game and play action could be a recipe for efficiency in Atlanta.
And in an NFC South with so many questions surrounding it, the Falcons could be the ones to sneak through.
2) New York Jets
The Jets are undoubtedly the most talented team on the list. Their issues come in the form of a large land mammal and another sea mammal. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins each have outstanding rosters, and Buffalo hasn’t let off the gas once since Tom Brady left New England.
But what keeps the Jets so high in the rankings is their own improvements from a season ago and what they’re building off of. Their defense was outstanding in 2022, and little should change in that regard in 2023. They were a QB away, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers should make up that difference, theoretically.
3) Chicago Bears
As a conductor of the Justin Fields hype train, it’s been a difficult offseason. Yes, the Chicago Bears have improved the roster drastically from a season ago, but most of that help has come on the offensive side of the ball. DeMarcus Walker and Trevis Gipson are their top pass rushers, and although Jaylon Johnson is a good cornerback, he’s not Darrell Revis, either. And sure, they added some big-name linebackers to the roster, but how much of a difference does that really make?
But that hasn’t slowed down the Bears’ hopium. The Vikings are acting like they don’t necessarily want to win the division, as they shed their roster of good veterans in an attempt to. … have a more secure future? The Packers are starting Jordan Love at QB, and Joe Barry is still calling their defense, so … And the Detroit Lions are the talk of the North, but that is a “see it to believe it” deal.
Success in Chicago this season isn’t winning the division. Success is getting a clear picture of what they might have long-term with Fields as a passer. Then next offseason, they can really start to throw assets at the defensive side of the ball.
4) Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders and the next team on the list might be the sneakiest of the bunch. Despite not receiving adequate QB play in a death-row NFC East, the Commanders finished the season even, and their defense dramatically improved from the previous year without Chase Young’s production and without relying on turnovers.
Adding Jacoby Brissett was brilliant. The veteran should push Sam Howell in camp, and if Howell doesn’t outduel him in camp it’s not a big deal if Brissett plays close to how he did a season ago with the Browns. The only reason the Commanders aren’t higher on the list is that they may still be the worst team in the NFC East, and there’s a chance whoever loses the division finishes with a winning record.
5) Houston Texans
The Houston Texans aren’t the most exciting franchise in professional football. However, they’ve become quite intriguing over the last few months. They have a talented young defensive core that has been infused with Jimmie Ward to help smooth out the kinks that come with a new defensive philosophy. They already have three strong offensive linemen starting, and although Kenyon Green was bad as a rookie, the former first-round pick should improve in Year 2.
Adding Dalton Schultz is huge for C.J. Stroud. Getting John Metchie back fully healthy would be a huge boost to the passing attack as well, and Bobby Slowik will undoubtedly bring a package similar to San Francisco’s offensively.
6) Cleveland Browns
The Browns are a talented team, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win the AFC North even though they rank sixth here. Jim Schwartz should provide simplicity to the defensive backfield, which will, in turn, allow what is an incredibly talented unit on the individual level to play faster and more coherently.
Cleveland’s problem is that the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are both still likely superior. Now, the Browns could blow everyone out of the water if Deshaun Watson returns to his Houston (on-field) form. But after how ugly things were for him when he returned last year, it’s best to remain cautiously optimistic.
7) Arizona Cardinals
We’ve finally reached the miracle tier. The Arizona Cardinals are the worst team on this list and likely the worst team in the NFL. They probably have a worse chance of winning their division than the Denver Broncos, but Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo are all still of sound body and mind. As long as that’s the case, only the Chiefs are winning the AFC West.
Arizona is in the fetal stage of its rebuild. Maybe a year from now, they’ll have a chance to be near the top of these rankings, considering the massive amount of draft capital they have heading into the 2024 NFL Draft.
8) Denver Broncos
Although the Broncos should be much improved in 2023 with the addition of Sean Payton and a slew of offensive linemen, it would take Danger-Russ returning while the team still boasted a top defense to have a shot at competing with the Chiefs. They fall last on this list not because of their own roster but because they’re in the same division as Goliath.
That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos on the cusp of a Wild Card birth as Week 18 expires.
