If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this fascinating Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Week 15 Saturday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Bills vs. Dolphins: Top Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the prospects for game-changing snow will, in fact, impact player production. Buffalo’s won nine of their last 10 home matchups against Miami.
In that one loss, the weather was overcast with a temperature in the high 30s. The Fins’ Jay Ajayi rushed 32 times for 206 yards. The Bills’ LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee combined for 219 yards on 35 carries.
The rushing volume might be similar Sunday night, though the production probably won’t be. I’m expecting the Bills to avenge their early-season loss to these same Dolphins, capitalizing on a superior defense and weather conditions that should at least somewhat neutralize Miami’s best weapon: Tyreek Hill.
I’m eyeing a roughly 28-10 Buffalo victory. With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.
Josh Allen Prop Bets
Josh Allen threw for 297+ yards in five of his first six contests. In seven games since, he’s tallied more than 253 yards only once. Tack on the snow, and we’re looking at a strong bet for 200 passing yards or less.
MORE: NFL Week 15 Predictions Including Lock and Upset of the Week
I think Allen will be more effective on the ground in this one, challenging a Dolphins defense surrendering the second-most QB rushing yards. And in case you’re wondering, even if we removed Allen’s 47 yards against them in Week 3, Miami still would be clear-and-away No. 2 in the league.
- Passing yards under 233.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Rushing attempts over 7.5
(-125) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-130) — DraftKings
Devin Singletary Prop Bets
Can Devin Singletary catch fire against Miami’s run defense, which has done a good job limiting opposing running backs? Volume probably is the key. Singletary racked up a solid 90 rushing yards on 21 combined carries these last two weeks against the Patriots and Jets. Truly, some respectable showings against two stout defenses.
Although his workload has declined steadily over the past few games, Singletary should need only 11 carries tonight to clear 42 yards. Assuming a more restrained passing attack in the snow, I think Singeltary can surpass his prop targets.
- Rushing attempts over 10.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings - Rushing yards over 42.5
(-120) — DraftKings
James Cook Prop Bets
Rookie James Cook is here to stay. While his usage has been all over the place (11 touches in Week 11, then four touches in Week 12, then 20 touches, then only five), his talent isn’t in doubt.
It’s highly unlikely that either he or Singletary will consistently handle a 75% backfield share. I believe they’ll shift closer to 50-50 by Week 17. For now, Cook is a great bet to comfortably exceed his receiving-yard prop line.
- Receiving yards over 10.5
(-110) — BetMGM
Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bets
If Buffalo can even partially shut down Hill, what hope would Tua Tagovailoa have? Jaylen Waddle has been inexplicably irrelevant, Trent Sherfield is solid, Mike Gesicki is basically a blocker, and Raheem Mostert isn’t a consistent threat through the air.
MORE: Defenses Seem To Have Figured Out Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins’ Offense
I’m concerned about Tagovailoa in this long-awaited rematch. The Bills’ secondary is stronger since they last met, thanks to the return of CB Tre’Davious White. Tagovailoa thrived for much of this season with two high-functioning receivers. Waddle truly is an X-factor, and of course, the weather is, too.
- Passing yards under 241.5
(-120) — BetMGM - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-165) — BetMGM
Jaylen Waddle Prop Bets
In a six-game stretch through Week 12, Waddle had 5+ catches and 85+ receiving yards per game. He was on pace for a 1,488-yard campaign. Simply incredible.
His current prop line makes sense only if we believe Miami will continue to do what didn’t work the past two weeks, which culminated in two tough losses. I believe the Dolphins will be forced to get Waddle going, if only because Hill can’t beat the Bills alone.
I’m overstating the issue, but hopefully, it’s apparent: Miami’s offensive power derives from having two great yard-after-catch receivers. It’s a nightmare for defenses — as long as they execute effectively.
Whether or not the Dolphins are successful tonight, Tagovailoa assuredly will get Waddle more involved. Because that’s a big key to making the playoffs.
- Receptions over 4.5
(-120) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 54.5
(-114) — FanDuel
