Things got a little tricky for Russell Wilson’s fantasy football managers on Friday when the Denver Broncos QB was announced as the starter for their Week 8 game in London.
It had appeared unlikely early in the week that Wilson would play, but he managed to practice all week and convince head coach Nathaniel Hackett that he was good to go. Let’s take a look at Wilson’s fantasy value in Week 8 and whether fantasy managers should start him against the Jaguars in Wembley stadium.
Should Fantasy Managers Trust Russell Wilson in Week 8?
It has not been the dream year for Wilson that many imagined after he was traded to the Broncos. In four of his six games in 2022, Wilson has failed to score more than 14 fantasy points. Meanwhile, he has only topped 20 fantasy points on one occasion. Wilson is averaging just 14.6 fantasy points per game, placing him down in a tie for the 21st-ranked QB this season.
Wilson’s average fantasy point return on the season is almost exactly where Underdog Fantasy has projected Wilson to finish in Week 8. They have Wilson projected for 14.75 fantasy points, 225.5 passing yards, and 31.5 passing attempts.
In the only game where Wilson topped 20 fantasy points, he scored a rushing touchdown and added 29 rushing yards. Therefore, 8.9 of those fantasy points were gained utilizing his legs. While Wilson has not been prolific with his legs this season, he had been leaning on the run a little more in the last few weeks. After three carries combined in the first two weeks, he is averaging 4.5 carries per game in the past four weeks.
In each of the past three weeks, Wilson had rushed for more than 20 yards on four carries. There is nothing overly significant about it, but it contributed between two and three fantasy points in each of those weeks. When your fantasy asset is averaging just 14.6 fantasy points per game, those 2.5 fantasy points that are gained simply from rushing yardage are providing 25 percent of his value.
That is where this hamstring issue adds a particular concern for fantasy managers. If Wilson is limited in his movement, it not only makes sit harder for him to avoid sacks and extend plays but also limits the value he can add in terms of fantasy points.
That would not be an issue if Wilson were throwing the ball well, but he is not. His 240.3 passing yards per game are not the problem. That number is actually above his career average. It is the lack of ability to find the end zone that is the issue for fantasy.
Wilson’s 0.83 touchdowns per game are more than a touchdown per game lower than his average in Seattle (1.85). Additionally, his 2.5 percent touchdown rate is the lowest of his career.
Where Does Wilson Sit in Our Week 8 Fantasy Rankings?
Entering Week 8, Wilson resides as the QB18 in Tommy Garrett’s Week 8 PPR fantasy rankings. Part of the problem is that it is so hard to know just how healthy Wilson is because the injury was being discussed as a potential multi-week situation immediately following the occurrence.
Hamstring injuries are tricky to judge, especially for QBs, because they have a somewhat lesser effect than on other positions. Therefore, we are flying into Sunday morning somewhat blind as to how effective Wilson can be as either a passer or with his legs. It is also tough to judge the risk of re-injury because that element has a huge impact on fantasy if he limps off the field after just one or two plays.
In terms of the matchup, the Jaguars’ defense is very much a middle-of-the-pack group against QBs. In regard to fantasy points allowed, they allow 17.11 points per game on average. However, they have been a little more vulnerable in the last two weeks. In those two games, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed more than 27 fantasy points to QBs on both occasions.
There is definitely an opportunity for Wilson to have success this week. The matchup is there, and this is a real backs-to-the-wall game for the Broncos. Sitting with a 2-5 record, if they lost this week, then they will very likely be sellers at the trade deadline. While not impossible, it will be hard for the Broncos to be significant challengers in the AFC from 2-6, with some tough matchups to come later in the year.
Therefore, a ranking of QB18 makes a lot of sense. While it is hard to trust Wilson in 1QB leagues, it is also hard not to start him in Superflex leagues, where 20 to 28 QBs are started in any given week.
Below Wilson are the likes of Davis Mills, Andy Dalton, and another injury concern with Ryan Tannehill. Dig deeper, and we find Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, and Jacoby Brissett. For as bad as Wilson has been this year, it is hard to feel good about starting those options over him.
Should You Pick Higher or Lower on Wilson’s Underdog Projections?
If you don’t have Wilson on your fantasy team but feel strongly about him one way or another this week, then you can get involved with Underdog Fantasy‘s Pick ’em game. As stated above, they project Wilson for 14.75 fantasy points. That is a number he has fallen below in 66.7 percent of his games this season.
Additionally, they have Wilson projected for 225.5 passing yards. Wilson is averaging 240.3 passing yards per game and has topped 225.5 in three of his six games, including two of his last three. The numbers are similar when it comes to his 31.5-passing attempt projection. He averages 33 attempts per season and has topped 32 attempts on three occasions.
Additionally, the Jaguars have been the fifth-best defense in terms of yards per attempt allowed in the run game. Therefore, this could be a game we see the Broncos put on the arm of Wilson in the second half. Going higher on both passing projections is extremely tempting.
However, any decision to make a decision on going higher or lower on those projections needs to be considered in the context of the hamstring issue and the risk of re-injury.
There is a reasonable chance that we could see Wilson leave the game early, limiting his upside. Therefore, Wilson is an extremely tough player to judge in the Underdog Pick ’em in Week 8.
