The AFC East has a clear favorite in the Buffalo Bills, but can the upstart New York Jets make a statement road win? The Bills are Super Bowl favorites, and the Jets are trying to overcome Zach Wilson’s sophomore slump. We’re diving into the best player prop bets in this matchup, including Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and Zach Wilson.
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. On top of grabbing these Jets and Bills player prop bets, I highly recommend grabbing your no-sweat first bet for Week 9 while you can.
Top Jets vs. Bills Player Props To Target
We’re using every tool at our disposal to make sharp prop bets for this AFC East battle, including fantasy averages, player trends, and the best vig. Let’s dive into the best prop bets you can target.
Dawson Knox Player Props: Anytime TD (+155)
Despite not having much success in four career games against the Jets — averaging under two receptions for 23.3 yards — Dawson Knox is in a good place to shock the Jets. He’s aiming for his third straight game with a touchdown catch after totaling zero through his first four games.
Knox proved to be an elite producer in the red zone last season, finishing fifth in red zone scoring amongst tight ends thanks to his six touchdown receptions. In total, he caught 11-of-18 targets for 64 yards. He’s slipped to 13th this season after missing two games to injury and seeing his target share drop to four.
Buffalo has the top-producing passing offense in the NFL, so it’s not as if they need to suddenly change strategies. But with the Jets excelling this season against wide receivers, ranking seventh in fantasy points allowed, alternative strategies can be good. The Jets are middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, though.
Allowing 5.8 receptions for 59 yards but no touchdowns, Knox can be the first to ruin the Jets’ run of keeping tight ends out of the end zone. It’s impressive, considering the Jets have played against Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth, and Hunter Henry. Playing the Bills is a different challenge, though.
Also worth noting is that a $5 bet on the over of Knox’s reception total would win $200 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zach Wilson Player Props: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-200)
Wilson has taken a beating over the last two weeks, as everyone is seeing just how poorly he’s adjusting to the NFL. The developmental curve shouldn’t be a surprise based on how he won at BYU. He never played within the system and relied far too heavily on ignoring the timing of the play and extending on broken plays.
It’ll take Wilson years to become a proper timing-based quarterback, if ever. I’m not saying he won’t get there, but the Jets made a mistake drafting him second overall when there were better players available. He’s holding this team back from being a legitimate playoff threat.
Completing under 55 percent of his passes for 209.6 yards per game, Wilson still has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (three). I think that disparity grows this week. He threw a career-high 355 yards last week but completed only 48.78% of his 41 attempts for two touchdowns and three picks.
Wilson has been safer with the ball this since really struggling with turnovers in the first half of his rookie year. His five interceptions came across two games. With Tre’Davious White just activated, expect him to be at high-risk to add to his interception total.
The Bills’ pass rush is simply phenomenal. As expected, Von Miller has been a key difference-maker on a unit that was already good. He’s elevated the play of everyone around him, including Ed Oliver, Gregory Rousseau, and Jordan Phillips.
It might be rookie Kaiir Elam or star safety Jordan Poyer or even White, but Wilson will be intercepted this week. That’s my lock of this game.
Devin Singletary Player Props: Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Jets’ defense is pretty good, and they’re well-rounded. They’re not elite against running backs, but they’re at least average. With the Bills prone to ignoring the position for large stretches of the game, ranking fifth in pass attempts and 19th in rushing attempts, the Jets don’t need to fear a monstrous game from Devin Singletary.
The biggest running threat on the Bills is clearly Josh Allen. Singletary is turning in a nice season before free agency but is averaging only 46.3 yards per game. However, those numbers are being dragged down by Week 2 and Week 3, when he totaled 32 rushing yards. Singletary has 49 or more yards in three of his last four games.
The lone game he didn’t reach that number was Singletary’s 42-yard game on only six carries. And through that stretch, Singletary averaged 5.06 yards per carry. This will be strength on strength since the Jets are second in the NFL in rush yards per carry.
I am concerned the Bills will forgo giving Singletary the ball if this is a close game. The acquisition of Nyheim Hines shouldn’t hurt Singletary’s rushing totals since he’ll be a receiving back only. However, the Bills’ priority of continuing to add backs shows me this team wants Allen to do less and rely on his support more.
Josh Allen Player Props: 300+ Pass Yards, 40+ Rushing Yards, 1 Rush TD (+700)
So what happens if Allen decides he needs to be Superman once again and has a complete field day? DraftKings has a terrific boosted odds prop for us. I like the return on this trio of props, as Allen has already accomplished this stats line twice this season. He’s been close in two other games.
Allen has a complex for taking over games. It’s easy to see why since he’s such an effective and unique weapon. The Jets can stifle this offense somewhat effectively with their secondary talent, but Allen can then respond by running more. The floodgates can quickly open at that point.
This is a longshot bet, but I’m placing a partial unit on it. Allen’s explosions have come against some of his best opponents. New York might not be their most talented foe, but they are trying to threaten the top dog, which Allen should take personally.
