This Giants vs. Commanders prediction focuses on a rise from the ashes for the Washington Commanders and a free fall from winning for the New York Giants. Both franchises are headed in opposite directions, and if the season ended today, both teams would be in the postseason.
Below, using the Behavior Bets sports betting model, we will examine these Giants vs. Commanders odds and see if we can use the model’s final score prediction to find value for bettors. Can Taylor Heineke close the door on Daniel Jones and the Giants and cover a 4.5-point spread?
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Prediction and Odds | Week 15
- Spread: Commanders -4.5
- Moneyline: Commanders -225
- Over/Under: Over 40.5
Giants vs. Commanders Prediction
The Behavior Bets betting model is off to an excellent Week 15 start following Thursday Night Football. Five wagers were placed, and we hit on every one of them. For the season, the model is 82-39-5* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going with this Giants vs. Commanders prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit.
The Commanders are going through a renaissance since they made the full-time move to Heineke at the quarterback position. They have now played more games with him (7) than without him (6) this season.
In the seven games with Heinicke, they are scoring 34% more points per minute of possession time. That is a massive increase from how the offense was operating with Carson Wentz at the helm. They haven’t had one game as bad as four of Wentz’s starts this season.
With all of that said, their .621 points per minute average is still among the bottom 10 teams of the league. They haven’t had one game this year where they averaged a full point per minute of possession time. They are one of the only teams in the league not to achieve that mark on offense.
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The Giants’ defense is charged this week with keeping that streak alive for Washington. New York is right at the league average on points allowed to be scored per minute of opposition possession time. They give up .674 points per minute, which is slightly more than what Commanders are scoring.
The Giants allow the opponent to have the ball for an average of 29 minutes when on the road. The Commanders hold the ball, on average, for 32 minutes at home. There’s no reason the Commanders shouldn’t hit their average in this game if everyone behaves accordingly.
Daniel Jones is leading the Giants’ offense to exactly the same scoring rate as the Giants defense is allowing: .674 points per minute of possession time. This has helped make the Giants one of the more predictable teams in the league. With a bounce rate under x2 and a celeration rate of x1.03 (3% growth week over week), they are as steady as they come.
The question is whether or not they can continue that steadiness against the Washington defense. Washington gives up an average of .727 points per minute of opponent possession time. That puts them just below the league average in terms of effectiveness (12th worst in the league). Against these same Giants two weeks ago, they gave up .7 points per minute.
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The difference? The offense held the ball for over 41 minutes. That’s eight minutes over their season average on the road and their season average overall. Despite having the ball that long, they couldn’t score more than .5 points per minute. If history repeats and they score at the season average rate, the tie from two weeks ago could become a win this week.
Giants, Commanders Prediction: Giants 18, Commanders 24
