Josh Allen’s elbow injury has dominated the headlines this week and also has fantasy football managers scratching their heads. There has been a lot swirling around the severity of the injury and what it might mean for Allen’s availability in Week 10 and beyond.
Let’s take a look at the latest update on Allen’s injury, whether we should expect to see him in Week 10, and the fantasy football impact of that.
What Is the Latest on Josh Allen’s Elbow Injury?
The news coming out of Buffalo regarding Allen’s injury has been somewhat muted directly from the team itself. We’ve received regular updates from various NFL Insiders during the weeks. On Monday, following the injury, Ian Rapoport referred to Allen as being in “slight pain,” which is something the QB himself had told reporters the night before.
At that stage, Rapoport also reported that Allen is likely to be limited this week, but the issue was “considered a situation to monitor rather than an ailment that would keep him out of the game,” according to sources. Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott told reporters on Wednesday that Allen was “day-to-day.”
On “The Insiders” show this week, Rapoport referred to the injury as a UCL sprain. He then added it is a “tiny tear, some sort of injury to his UCL.” The fact Allen has not received surgery is a good sign that the Bills do not see the sprain or the tear as major. UCL injuries are more common in baseball, with pitchers undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair them.
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After Allen was unable to practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, he was able to return in a limited fashion on Friday. There was initially concern after Allen was not seen during the media portion of the session. However, Allen was seen leaving the field in full practice gear at the end of the session.
Therefore, Allen was listed as questionable for Week 10 and has had a chance to play. If he does not suit up, then Case Keenum would be Buffalo’s starting QB. Additionally, if Allen is out in Week 10, the injury is only expected to be a one-week situation rather than a long-term absence.
What Is the Fantasy Impact for Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, and More?
The problem we have if Allen plays is that we have no idea how hampered he might be by this injury. We saw him uncork a bomb late in the game against the New York Jets, just after suffering the injury. However, Allen did not continuously have to throw the ball continuously after the injury, so we don’t know the full implications.
That uncertainty over what Allen might look like passing the ball is a concern if you have him on your fantasy roster. It will be close to impossible to bench him if he’s active, but it could be a less-than-normal-looking performance from Allen. He does present a slight value in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball formats, where the injury will have slightly depressed his value, but Allen’s upside is still there.
Regardless of if Allen is active, it will be extremely hard not to start Stefon Diggs. The Bills WR is a star and would be expected to be QB-proof. Diggs’ ceiling might be impacted, but he should still see enough work to ensure that he is a starting option this week, as usual.
Things are less certain with Gabe Davis. He is always a big-play threat. So as long as Keenum or Allen can get the ball into his hands five or six times a game, there is always a chance he will break a play.
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Even with Allen, Davis is a borderline 12-team Flex consideration on a weekly basis. Keenum doesn’t change that much because while he’s not as explosive a passer, Davis is capable of making plays without catching the ball 25 to 30 yards down the field.
The player that might see the biggest boost if Allen is out is Devin Singletary. With Allen on the field, Singletary doesn’t see consistent usage and also loses touches down near the goal line.
A Keenum-led Bills’ offense may rely more on the run game to relieve the pressure on him than when Allen is under center. Additionally, Keenum is not the running threat that Allen is, which should filter more red-zone touches to Singletary and James Cook.
We could also see a slight boost in value for the likes of Cook and Dawson Knox. While the offense as a whole might be less productive with Keenum than Allen, it could also be a more compact offense. Therefore, we could see more targets to the likes of Cook and Knox as the Bills try to play a safer level of football with Keenum.
Overall, the players you are likely to trust if Allen is out in 12-team leagues are Diggs and Singletary. Those two have the best floor-to-ceiling ratio in a Keenum-led offense. In 14-team leagues, Davis is always a consideration as a potential boom option. Meanwhile, Knox and Cook are Flex options in 14-team leagues but more likely options in 16-team formats.
