If you’re playing a Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Texans Considerations
If you’re betting on this game, you might be a Houston fan or a Tennessee fan. Or you might simply want an extra reason to watch three more hours of America’s favorite pastime.
Or . . . you want to see if Dameon Pierce can keep pushing for the all-time single-season rookie rushing record. He’s racked up 402 yards in his last four games and, unlike many RBs, doesn’t have to worry about negative game scripts. In fact, he’s been at his best when trailing, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
In a Pierce-or-bust DFS lineup, we take the all-world rookie and five players from the other team. Or at least, that’s been my general strategy this season.
But against Tennessee, our calculus shifts because both teams are top-heavy. That leaves us scrounging for value among secondary and tertiary options.
With Brandin Cooks still overpriced and with Nico Collins hobbled, we might need to dig pretty deep to find the right plays. Or — yes, it’s true — Davis Mills might be an option.
Titans Considerations
Remember what I just wrote? OK, now replace “Dameon Pierce” with “Derrick Henry.” While the Titans’ defense has mostly stopped opposing RBs from running wild (4.4 yards per carry, one rushing TD), Houston’s D has yielded 5.2 yards per carry and eight rushing scores.
Whatever Pierce does, Henry might do a little better. And not just about defenses. Four of Henry’s six opponents have had good-to-terrific run defenses, including the Bills, Rams, and Colts (twice). Henry should be strongly considered for our Captain slot.
Elsewhere, as with Houston, Titan options are risky at best. We can’t really trust Robert Woods or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or Austin Hooper or any other receiver. Aside from QB, we might consider kicker and D/ST, which normally yield lower ceilings, but in this case might be our best bets.
Still, if one secondary Titan goes off, that will impact who wins and who loses this DFS slate. So maybe we should take a closer look at Woods and other Titans — including Henry’s complementary/backup RB.
Top DFS Lineup for Texans vs. Titans
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Derrick Henry, Titans ($18,900)
The assumption here is that with Ryan Tannehill hobbled, Henry will be called on to do even more. A highly favorable matchup and presumed heavy workload make him a prime Captain.
Flex: RB Dameon Pierce, Texans ($10,400)
Of course, Pierce isn’t far behind. For the reasons previously stated, he has to be included in a matchup with so few big-ceiling options.
Flex: QB Davis Mills, Texans ($10,000)
This choice might not make sense. But Mills looked solid against a bottom-tier Raiders pass defense, and now he faces another bottom-tier pass defense in the Titans.
Flex: WR Phillip Dorsett, Texans ($5,400)
Phillip Dorsett’s inclusion assumes Nico Collins will sit (Collins appears doubtful as of Friday morning). Dorsett is both risky and intriguing. At this price, he’s worth including.
Flex: TE Jordan Akins, Texans ($4,600)
Brevin Jordan flopped in his return last week, and Mills turned to his backup TE for help. Akins thrived with a 3-68 receiving line. I’m choosing chemistry over depth chart on this one.
Flex: WR Chris Conley, Titans ($200)
There are so many reasons to buy and fade Chris Conley this weekend. Let’s focus on the buying. With $900 remaining in our budget, he fits. He’s also a good bet to start in light of Tennessee’s injury woes. No other Titan pass catcher — not even the expensive Robert Woods — is dependable.
Conley started this season with Houston before getting cut. This is a revenge game of sorts. I don’t want to overstate that. It’s not like Matt Ryan returning to Atlanta to face the Falcons (um, ill-timed example). But Tennessee signed him for a reason, and it wasn’t just to block.
