Could Wind, Rain, and Snow Have an Impact on Fantasy Matchups?

As temperatures continue to drop around the country, the risk of the weather affecting NFL games and fantasy football matchups increases. This week sees all but three games being played in stadiums open to the elements, so the weather forecasts for those 11 games will be crucial.

Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 11 weather report and how the current forecasts could impact this weekend’s games and your fantasy matchups.

Weather forecasts are up to date as of 4:15 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023. Forecasts for the games are from the National Weather Service.

Week 11 NFL Weather Report and Fantasy Impact

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: High-40s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 11 mph northwesterly

The weather forecasts for the 1 p.m. ET window are generally pretty calm before things get a little dicier in the afternoon. The worst of the weather in this window may well come in Cleveland, where the Deshaun Watson-less Cleveland Brown faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the predicted weather forecast is for slightly elevated winds that should have limited impact.

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The concern for this game is just what fantasy value we are going to find. Can Dorian Thompson-Robinson make Amari Cooper and other pass-catchers fantasy-relevant, and will the Steelers pack the box and negate Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt? The Browns are a really tough team to judge fantasy-wise this week.

Things are a little more clear with the Steelers in PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Rankings. You are probably starting both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, with Diontae Johnson in most lineups and George Pickens in the deeper-league flex discussion.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: High-70s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 10 mph northerly

There could be a little bit of wind around for the Miami Dolphins game with the Las Vegas Raiders, but it should be relatively low-impact when you add in the roof. That is great news, given the number of stud options on the field in this one, with seven players ranked inside the top 50 on PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Rankings.

The biggest debates in this game will be how the return of De’Von Achane impacts Raheem Mostert, who has the better rest-of-season fantasy value, and whether Davante Adams can be fantasy-relevant this week after some tough games. It would be great for fantasy managers if this game turns into a shootout that gives value all over the field.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 10 mph westerly

The first meeting between these two teams was not a pretty watch as it finished in a 14-7 win for the New York Giants. There is no guarantee this game will be any better, and it could end up being a tough place to find fantasy value. Fortunately, the weather will not make things worse with just marginally elevated winds.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 5 mph northeasterly

There should be no concerns in this game between the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers. The chance of rain is low, and the winds should be relatively calm. Add in nice temperatures, and hopefully, we can see plenty of offensive production here to pad the stats of those key fantasy options on both offenses.

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 6 mph northeasterly

Heading to Lambeau Field can be a concern for warm weather-based teams, but this is as close to as nice as you can hope for in Green Bay for the Los Angeles Chargers. The cold is something you can fully expect when you travel to the Frozen Tundra in the second half of the season, but to have low wind speeds and no precipitation is a bonus for the Chargers and fantasy managers.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, 1 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: High-70s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 10 mph northeasterly

Rounding out the early window is this game in Jacksonville between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. The weather should be as close to perfect as you can get, with a warm day that should see little-to-no rainfall and relatively calm winds. There is no reason to downgrade any fantasy options based on the weather here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Low-60s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff but chance of rain later in the game
• Wind: 14 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 23 mph

The afternoon is when the weather forecast could start to have some impact on NFL games and fantasy matchups. Games in Levi’s Stadium can often be wind-impacted, and it looks to be that way again. The wind speeds are not extreme, but it has the chance to push down scoring and make it tough for passing and kicking games. The potential for rain late in the game could also have a minor impact especially if combined with driving winds.

MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

The stud options like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Mike Evans are not getting a major downgrade based on this. However, the more fringe options of Chris Godwin, Brock Purdy, and Cade Otton do see their value drop a little if the wind could have an impact on games. Similarly, you may want to go away from the kicking options in this game. Of the two, Jake Moody is the more likely starting option.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Low-40s
• Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 15 mph northwesterly

Early in the week, there was talk of snow in this matchup, but things have not played out that way as the forecast developed during the week. There is still the chance we see some precipitation to go with the slightly elevated winds. This is another one of those games where you start your studs and downgrade the fringe options.

The players in the range who get a downgrade with the potential of windy weather include Gabe Davis, Tyler Conklin, Khalil Shakir, and Allen Lazard. The ground game could be crucial here if we see the wind start to whip up, so the situation with James Cook and the Bills’ backfield is a fascinating one to watch this weekend.

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: High-40s
• Showers: 55% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 10 mph northerly with potential gusts up to 15 mph

It looks like it could be a wet and windy night in Colorado, but the forecast has cleared up somewhat in the past 24 hours. On Saturday it looked like there was a high chance of rain and potential for gusts up to 20 mph. That now appears to have gone, as has the risk of snowfall that was hovering around the back end of the game.

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Based on the forecast as of early Sunday morning, there should be no limitations on any fantasy options in this game. The risk of snow has almost completely gone with the forecast for any snow pushing back later into Monday morning than originally forecast. That is good news for fantasy managers all around.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs | Monday, 8:15 p.m.

• Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
• Showers: 30-35% chance at kickoff
• Wind: 13 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 25 mph

If you are hoping for a Monday Night Football fantasy miracle, then the current weather forecast could put the brakes on that. With wind gusts up to 25 mph, there could be some issues for passing and kicking games.

The weather forecast is not severe enough to scare you off the likes of Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Patrick Mahomes, or Jalen Hurts, but the other pass catchers in this game are far less certain. We have an extra 24 hours for things to change, but if you are on the fence with Rashee Rice, this might be a week to lean away.

Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof

• Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 1 p.m.
• Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
• Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!